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Mundo·Elecciones Mundiales

Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría

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Mundo·Elecciones Mundiales

Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría

Apr 12

Apr 12

Péter Magyar 65%

Viktor Orbán 36%

István Kapitány <1%

László Toroczkai <1%

Polymarket

$39,084,349 Vol.

Péter Magyar 65%

Viktor Orbán 36%

István Kapitány <1%

László Toroczkai <1%

Polymarket

$39,084,349 Vol.

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Péter Magyar

$4,628,696 Vol.

65%

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Viktor Orbán

$4,094,210 Vol.

36%

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István Kapitány

$9,491,994 Vol.

<1%

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László Toroczkai

$11,549,048 Vol.

<1%

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János Lázár

$4,881,514 Vol.

<1%

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Klára Dobrev

$4,479,149 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Péter Magyar of the opposition Tisza party at 65.5% implied probability to become the next prime minister, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz that have widened in March. Recent surveys, including a Medián poll showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz at 35%, alongside a massive anti-Orbán rally in Budapest on March 15, have bolstered Magyar's momentum after his emergence as a Fidesz critic. Orbán trails at 33.5% despite incumbency advantages in the gerrymandered electoral system and historical dominance, with minor candidates like János Lázár and Klára Dobrev negligible amid unified opposition dynamics. Final turnout and coalition math could still shift outcomes.

With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Péter Magyar of the opposition Tisza party at 65.5% implied probability to become the next prime minister, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz that have widened in March. Recent surveys, including a Medián poll showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz at 35%, alongside a massive anti-Orbán rally in Budapest on March 15, have bolstered Magyar's momentum after his emergence as a Fidesz critic. Orbán trails at 33.5% despite incumbency advantages in the gerrymandered electoral system and historical dominance, with minor candidates like János Lázár and Klára Dobrev negligible amid unified opposition dynamics. Final turnout and coalition math could still shift outcomes.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Péter Magyar of the opposition Tisza party at 65.5% implied probability to become the next prime minister, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz that have widened in March. Recent surveys, including a Medián poll showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz at 35%, alongside a massive anti-Orbán rally in Budapest on March 15, have bolstered Magyar's momentum after his emergence as a Fidesz critic. Orbán trails at 33.5% despite incumbency advantages in the gerrymandered electoral system and historical dominance, with minor candidates like János Lázár and Klára Dobrev negligible amid unified opposition dynamics. Final turnout and coalition math could still shift outcomes.

With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Péter Magyar of the opposition Tisza party at 65.5% implied probability to become the next prime minister, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz that have widened in March. Recent surveys, including a Medián poll showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz at 35%, alongside a massive anti-Orbán rally in Budapest on March 15, have bolstered Magyar's momentum after his emergence as a Fidesz critic. Orbán trails at 33.5% despite incumbency advantages in the gerrymandered electoral system and historical dominance, with minor candidates like János Lázár and Klára Dobrev negligible amid unified opposition dynamics. Final turnout and coalition math could still shift outcomes.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Péter Magyar" con 65%, seguido de "Viktor Orbán" con 36%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 65¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 65% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría" ha generado $39.1 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 24, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría" es "Péter Magyar" con 65%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 65% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Viktor Orbán" con 36%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.