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Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

Market icon
Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 14%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz) 7.7%

Hezbolá (Hezb) 2.4%

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 1.8%

Polymarket

$161,958 Vol.

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 14%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz) 7.7%

Hezbolá (Hezb) 2.4%

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 1.8%

Polymarket

$161,958 Vol.

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)

$135,344 Vol.

14%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)

$0 Vol.

8%

Hezbolá (Hezb)

$0 Vol.

2%

Movimiento Amal (Amal)

$26,614 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$0 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$0 Vol.

1%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD)

$0 Vol.

1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)

$0 Vol.

1%

Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido de la Unión (UP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento Marada (MM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Alianza Watani (Watani)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Grupo Islámico (IG)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 13.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, reflecting its position as the leading anti-Hezbollah Christian bloc amid the Shia group's military setbacks from recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes and the November 27 ceasefire, which killed leader Hassan Nasrallah and many commanders. Ba'ath Party trails at 7.5%, buoyed by historical pro-Syria ties despite Assad regime's December 8 collapse disrupting regional alliances. Hezbollah languishes at 2.4% due to weakened stature. In Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system, sectarian balances and coalition negotiations dominate; support could consolidate around LF if economic crisis and presidential vacuum spur a snap election, or shift via Amal-Hezbollah recovery or Sunni fragmentation.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$161,958
Fecha de finalización
May 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 13.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, reflecting its position as the leading anti-Hezbollah Christian bloc amid the Shia group's military setbacks from recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes and the November 27 ceasefire, which killed leader Hassan Nasrallah and many commanders. Ba'ath Party trails at 7.5%, buoyed by historical pro-Syria ties despite Assad regime's December 8 collapse disrupting regional alliances. Hezbollah languishes at 2.4% due to weakened stature. In Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system, sectarian balances and coalition negotiations dominate; support could consolidate around LF if economic crisis and presidential vacuum spur a snap election, or shift via Amal-Hezbollah recovery or Sunni fragmentation.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 13.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, reflecting its position as the leading anti-Hezbollah Christian bloc amid the Shia group's military setbacks from recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes and the November 27 ceasefire, which killed leader Hassan Nasrallah and many commanders. Ba'ath Party trails at 7.5%, buoyed by historical pro-Syria ties despite Assad regime's December 8 collapse disrupting regional alliances. Hezbollah languishes at 2.4% due to weakened stature. In Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system, sectarian balances and coalition negotiations dominate; support could consolidate around LF if economic crisis and presidential vacuum spur a snap election, or shift via Amal-Hezbollah recovery or Sunni fragmentation.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 23 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" con 14%, seguido de "Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)" con 8%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 14¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 14% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" ha generado $162K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano", explora los 23 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" con 14%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 14% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)" con 8%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.