Aggregated seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125, updated through late April, position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for 64 seats and a likely majority government in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting trader consensus at 65.5% for PQ victory despite close vote intentions. Recent polls, including Liaison Strategies on April 27 and Léger on April 20, show PQ and PLQ tied or nearly so around 30-32%, with CAQ climbing to 16-17% under new leader Christine Fréchette following her April 12 leadership win. First-past-the-post electoral math amplifies PQ's strength in francophone regions, while PLQ's Montreal base limits their path despite competitive polling; CAQ remains marginalized at projected zero seats. With the election due by October 5, upcoming debates and regional dynamics could shift probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 66%
PLQ 27%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$483,268 Vol.
$483,268 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
66%
PLQ
27%
CAQ
9%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 66%
PLQ 27%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$483,268 Vol.
$483,268 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
$50,446 Vol.
66%
PLQ
$55,368 Vol.
27%
CAQ
$55,340 Vol.
9%
PCQ
$155,249 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$112,853 Vol.
<1%
QS
$54,013 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Aggregated seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125, updated through late April, position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for 64 seats and a likely majority government in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting trader consensus at 65.5% for PQ victory despite close vote intentions. Recent polls, including Liaison Strategies on April 27 and Léger on April 20, show PQ and PLQ tied or nearly so around 30-32%, with CAQ climbing to 16-17% under new leader Christine Fréchette following her April 12 leadership win. First-past-the-post electoral math amplifies PQ's strength in francophone regions, while PLQ's Montreal base limits their path despite competitive polling; CAQ remains marginalized at projected zero seats. With the election due by October 5, upcoming debates and regional dynamics could shift probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$483,268Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Aggregated seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125, updated through late April, position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for 64 seats and a likely majority government in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting trader consensus at 65.5% for PQ victory despite close vote intentions. Recent polls, including Liaison Strategies on April 27 and Léger on April 20, show PQ and PLQ tied or nearly so around 30-32%, with CAQ climbing to 16-17% under new leader Christine Fréchette following her April 12 leadership win. First-past-the-post electoral math amplifies PQ's strength in francophone regions, while PLQ's Montreal base limits their path despite competitive polling; CAQ remains marginalized at projected zero seats. With the election due by October 5, upcoming debates and regional dynamics could shift probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$483,268Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Aggregated seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125, updated through late April, position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for 64 seats and a likely majority government in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting trader consensus at 65.5% for PQ victory despite close vote intentions. Recent polls, including Liaison Strategies on April 27 and Léger on April 20, show PQ and PLQ tied or nearly so around 30-32%, with CAQ climbing to 16-17% under new leader Christine Fréchette following her April 12 leadership win. First-past-the-post electoral math amplifies PQ's strength in francophone regions, while PLQ's Montreal base limits their path despite competitive polling; CAQ remains marginalized at projected zero seats. With the election due by October 5, upcoming debates and regional dynamics could shift probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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