Recent polling has kept the Parti Québécois in a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Quebec Liberal Party heading into the October 5, 2026, general election, driven by PQ strength among Francophone voters who prioritize sovereignty and language protection. The CAQ has rebounded several points following Christine Fréchette’s April leadership win and swearing-in as premier, narrowing the gap in some surveys but remaining well behind the top two parties. New Liberal leader Charles Milliard has stabilized that party’s support, particularly among non-Francophones, while smaller parties show minimal movement. Traders appear to view the PQ’s consistent Francophone base and nationalist positioning as providing the clearest path to a plurality or majority, reflected in the current implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 61%
PLQ 25%
CAQ 16%
PCQ <1%
$532,353 Vol.
$532,353 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
61%
PLQ
25%
CAQ
16%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 61%
PLQ 25%
CAQ 16%
PCQ <1%
$532,353 Vol.
$532,353 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
$55,089 Vol.
61%
PLQ
$57,734 Vol.
25%
CAQ
$63,800 Vol.
16%
PCQ
$165,430 Vol.
<1%
QS
$69,140 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$121,160 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling has kept the Parti Québécois in a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Quebec Liberal Party heading into the October 5, 2026, general election, driven by PQ strength among Francophone voters who prioritize sovereignty and language protection. The CAQ has rebounded several points following Christine Fréchette’s April leadership win and swearing-in as premier, narrowing the gap in some surveys but remaining well behind the top two parties. New Liberal leader Charles Milliard has stabilized that party’s support, particularly among non-Francophones, while smaller parties show minimal movement. Traders appear to view the PQ’s consistent Francophone base and nationalist positioning as providing the clearest path to a plurality or majority, reflected in the current implied probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$532,353Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling has kept the Parti Québécois in a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Quebec Liberal Party heading into the October 5, 2026, general election, driven by PQ strength among Francophone voters who prioritize sovereignty and language protection. The CAQ has rebounded several points following Christine Fréchette’s April leadership win and swearing-in as premier, narrowing the gap in some surveys but remaining well behind the top two parties. New Liberal leader Charles Milliard has stabilized that party’s support, particularly among non-Francophones, while smaller parties show minimal movement. Traders appear to view the PQ’s consistent Francophone base and nationalist positioning as providing the clearest path to a plurality or majority, reflected in the current implied probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$532,353Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling has kept the Parti Québécois in a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Quebec Liberal Party heading into the October 5, 2026, general election, driven by PQ strength among Francophone voters who prioritize sovereignty and language protection. The CAQ has rebounded several points following Christine Fréchette’s April leadership win and swearing-in as premier, narrowing the gap in some surveys but remaining well behind the top two parties. New Liberal leader Charles Milliard has stabilized that party’s support, particularly among non-Francophones, while smaller parties show minimal movement. Traders appear to view the PQ’s consistent Francophone base and nationalist positioning as providing the clearest path to a plurality or majority, reflected in the current implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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