**The Parti Québécois holds a sustained polling edge heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys placing it at 27–29% support, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ.** This positioning, combined with stronger francophone backing and more efficient vote distribution under first-past-the-post rules, underpins the market’s assessment that the PQ is the clear frontrunner to win the most seats. The CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s 2026 resignation, has faced headwinds from incumbency fatigue, cost-overrun controversies, and criticism of its fiscal record during recent leaders’ debates. The split federalist vote among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ further limits any single rival’s path to a plurality. Seat models reflect these dynamics, showing the PQ likely to secure a plurality or minority government while other parties trail in projected outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 83%
CAQ 16%
PLQ 2.1%
PCQ <1%
$974,781 Vol.
$974,781 Vol.
4 oct 2026
PQ
83%
CAQ
16%
PLQ
2%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 83%
CAQ 16%
PLQ 2.1%
PCQ <1%
$974,781 Vol.
$974,781 Vol.
4 oct 2026
PQ
$159,545 Vol.
83%
CAQ
$149,735 Vol.
16%
PLQ
$145,135 Vol.
2%
PCQ
$256,321 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Parti Québécois holds a sustained polling edge heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys placing it at 27–29% support, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ.** This positioning, combined with stronger francophone backing and more efficient vote distribution under first-past-the-post rules, underpins the market’s assessment that the PQ is the clear frontrunner to win the most seats. The CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s 2026 resignation, has faced headwinds from incumbency fatigue, cost-overrun controversies, and criticism of its fiscal record during recent leaders’ debates. The split federalist vote among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ further limits any single rival’s path to a plurality. Seat models reflect these dynamics, showing the PQ likely to secure a plurality or minority government while other parties trail in projected outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$974,781Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Parti Québécois holds a sustained polling edge heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys placing it at 27–29% support, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ.** This positioning, combined with stronger francophone backing and more efficient vote distribution under first-past-the-post rules, underpins the market’s assessment that the PQ is the clear frontrunner to win the most seats. The CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s 2026 resignation, has faced headwinds from incumbency fatigue, cost-overrun controversies, and criticism of its fiscal record during recent leaders’ debates. The split federalist vote among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ further limits any single rival’s path to a plurality. Seat models reflect these dynamics, showing the PQ likely to secure a plurality or minority government while other parties trail in projected outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$974,781Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**The Parti Québécois holds a sustained polling edge heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys placing it at 27–29% support, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ.** This positioning, combined with stronger francophone backing and more efficient vote distribution under first-past-the-post rules, underpins the market’s assessment that the PQ is the clear frontrunner to win the most seats. The CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s 2026 resignation, has faced headwinds from incumbency fatigue, cost-overrun controversies, and criticism of its fiscal record during recent leaders’ debates. The split federalist vote among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ further limits any single rival’s path to a plurality. Seat models reflect these dynamics, showing the PQ likely to secure a plurality or minority government while other parties trail in projected outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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