The Parti Québécois holds a commanding lead in recent polling aggregates ahead of the October 5 vote, driven by consistent support near 29% overall and stronger backing among francophone voters, which translates into favorable seat projections under first-past-the-post rules. The CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette, has recovered some ground to the low-to-mid 20s but trails after eight years in office amid voter fatigue and regional challenges. The federalist vote remains split among the Liberals, Conservatives, and others, limiting any single alternative from overtaking the PQ in most ridings. Projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ assign the PQ an 80% or higher probability of securing the most seats, though a majority remains unlikely given tight contests. The ongoing U.S. trade tensions have featured in the campaign but have not materially shifted the standings in the latest surveys.