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Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia

Market icon

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia

No habrá elecciones antes de 2027 79%

Waddani 12%

Kulmiye 6.5%

Justicia y Bienestar (UCID) 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW

No habrá elecciones antes de 2027 79%

Waddani 12%

Kulmiye 6.5%

Justicia y Bienestar (UCID) 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

No habrá elecciones antes de 2027

$3,008 Vol.

79%

Market icon

Waddani

$1,463 Vol.

12%

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Kulmiye

$1,263 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Justicia y Bienestar (UCID)

$2,966 Vol.

4%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).**Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 78.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's February 2026 announcement postponing polls from May 2026 to March 2027 amid security threats in eastern regions like Sool and drought impacts hindering voter registration and logistics.** This aligns with Somaliland's history of repeated delays in parliamentary votes, last held in 2005, despite recent presidential success in 2024. Waddani leads party odds at 12% on momentum from President Abdirahman Irro's victory, positioning it as frontrunner if elections occur, while former ruling Kulmiye (5.4%) and UCID (4.0%) lag. NEC's advanced BRIDGE training on dispute resolution last week signals preparations but reinforces the 2027 timeline, with no catalysts for advancement amid ongoing clan tensions and resource strains.

**Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 78.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's February 2026 announcement postponing polls from May 2026 to March 2027 amid security threats in eastern regions like Sool and drought impacts hindering voter registration and logistics.** This aligns with Somaliland's history of repeated delays in parliamentary votes, last held in 2005, despite recent presidential success in 2024. Waddani leads party odds at 12% on momentum from President Abdirahman Irro's victory, positioning it as frontrunner if elections occur, while former ruling Kulmiye (5.4%) and UCID (4.0%) lag. NEC's advanced BRIDGE training on dispute resolution last week signals preparations but reinforces the 2027 timeline, with no catalysts for advancement amid ongoing clan tensions and resource strains.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).**Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 78.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's February 2026 announcement postponing polls from May 2026 to March 2027 amid security threats in eastern regions like Sool and drought impacts hindering voter registration and logistics.** This aligns with Somaliland's history of repeated delays in parliamentary votes, last held in 2005, despite recent presidential success in 2024. Waddani leads party odds at 12% on momentum from President Abdirahman Irro's victory, positioning it as frontrunner if elections occur, while former ruling Kulmiye (5.4%) and UCID (4.0%) lag. NEC's advanced BRIDGE training on dispute resolution last week signals preparations but reinforces the 2027 timeline, with no catalysts for advancement amid ongoing clan tensions and resource strains.

**Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 78.5%, driven by the National Electoral Commission's February 2026 announcement postponing polls from May 2026 to March 2027 amid security threats in eastern regions like Sool and drought impacts hindering voter registration and logistics.** This aligns with Somaliland's history of repeated delays in parliamentary votes, last held in 2005, despite recent presidential success in 2024. Waddani leads party odds at 12% on momentum from President Abdirahman Irro's victory, positioning it as frontrunner if elections occur, while former ruling Kulmiye (5.4%) and UCID (4.0%) lag. NEC's advanced BRIDGE training on dispute resolution last week signals preparations but reinforces the 2027 timeline, with no catalysts for advancement amid ongoing clan tensions and resource strains.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "No habrá elecciones antes de 2027" con 79%, seguido de "Waddani" con 12%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 79¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 79% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Dec 16, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia" es "No habrá elecciones antes de 2027" con 79%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 79% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Waddani" con 12%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Somalilandia" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.