Fed Decision in October?

Economy·Global Rates

25 bps decrease

No change

53%

25 bps increase

46%

50+ bps increase

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

No change 53%

25 bps increase 46%

25 bps decrease <1%

50+ bps increase <1%

$5M Vol

Monthly

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

World·Germany

September 30, 2026

October 31, 2026

December 31, 2026

Merz's fate in the balance as second eastern German state goes to the polls

Bloomberg.com

・

Merz Vows to Stand by Ukraine Despite Opposition From Far Right

nytimes.com

・

With Messaging That Mirrors Putin’s, Germany’s Far-Right Party Gains Ground

AP News

・

The future of Germany’s leader is uncertain as his party faces 2 difficult regional elections

wsj.com

・

Opinion | Trump Lectures Ukraine, not Russia

reuters.com

・

Merz's fate in the balance as second eastern German state goes to the polls

Bloomberg.com

・

Merz Vows to Stand by Ukraine Despite Opposition From Far Right

nytimes.com

・

With Messaging That Mirrors Putin’s, Germany’s Far-Right Party Gains Ground

AP News

・

The future of Germany’s leader is uncertain as his party faces 2 difficult regional elections

wsj.com

・

Opinion | Trump Lectures Ukraine, not Russia

reuters.com

・

Merz's fate in the balance as second eastern German state goes to the polls

Bloomberg.com

・

Merz Vows to Stand by Ukraine Despite Opposition From Far Right

nytimes.com

・

With Messaging That Mirrors Putin’s, Germany’s Far-Right Party Gains Ground

AP News

・

The future of Germany’s leader is uncertain as his party faces 2 difficult regional elections

wsj.com

・

Opinion | Trump Lectures Ukraine, not Russia

December 31, 2026 20%

October 31, 2026 13%

September 30, 2026 6%

$1M Vol

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

7% chance

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

reuters.com

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

The Washington Post

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

wsj.com

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

CNN

・

The crypto industry saw Trump as its savior. His crypto business just snagged a key bill

nytimes.com

・

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

reuters.com

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

The Washington Post

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

wsj.com

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

CNN

・

The crypto industry saw Trump as its savior. His crypto business just snagged a key bill

nytimes.com

・

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

reuters.com

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

The Washington Post

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

wsj.com

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

CNN

・

The crypto industry saw Trump as its savior. His crypto business just snagged a key bill

$21M Vol

Ends Jan 1, 2027·

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Politics·Iran

September 21

September 30

October 31

December 31

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S.

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

AP News

・

Oman postpones regional talks on Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast developments

wsj.com

・

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S.

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

AP News

・

Oman postpones regional talks on Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast developments

wsj.com

・

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Finds Escalation Is Fruitful Path to Leverage in War With U.S.

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

AP News

・

Oman postpones regional talks on Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast developments

December 31 60.1%

October 31 37%

September 30 14%

September 21 3.7%

$29M Vol

Ends Jan 1, 2027·

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↑ $105

↓ $100

↓ $95

↓ $90

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

wsj.com

・

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

Bloomberg.com

・

Easing the Diesel Crunch Is Harder Than Keeping Planes in the Air

Oil

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

wsj.com

・

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

Bloomberg.com

・

Easing the Diesel Crunch Is Harder Than Keeping Planes in the Air

Oil

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

wsj.com

・

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

Bloomberg.com

・

Easing the Diesel Crunch Is Harder Than Keeping Planes in the Air

BBC

・

Oil

↓ $100 88.5%

↑ $105 73%

↓ $95 68%

↓ $90 38.0%

$5M Vol

Monthly

All markets

Fed Decision in October?

No change

53%

Yes53%No48%

25 bps increase

46%

Yes46%No55%

No change

53%

Yes53%No48%

25 bps increase

46%

Yes46%No55%

$5M Vol.

BTC Up or Down 5m

44%

Down

Live

·Bitcoin

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%

chance

Yes

NEW

9z Globant

Fuego

95%

9z Globant

Fuego

Game 3

$186K Vol.

·LoL

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

2 (50 bps)

64%

Yes64%No37%

1 (25 bps)

21%

Yes21%No80%

2 (50 bps)

64%

Yes64%No37%

1 (25 bps)

21%

Yes21%No80%

$458K Vol.

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$125K Vol.

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

Scenario

Yes5%No95%

Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

Scenario

Yes5%No95%

$143K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 2026

20%

Yes20%No81%

October 31, 2026

13%

Yes13%No88%

December 31, 2026

20%

Yes20%No81%

October 31, 2026

13%

Yes13%No88%

$1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson

93%

Yes93%No8%

Ulf Kristersson

Yes7%No94%

Magdalena Andersson

93%

Yes93%No8%

Ulf Kristersson

Yes7%No94%

$8M Vol.

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke

68%

Yes68%No33%

CDU

27%

Yes27%No74%

Linke

68%

Yes68%No33%

CDU

27%

Yes27%No74%

$4M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party

59%

Yes59%No42%

Republican Party

42%

Yes42%No59%

Democratic Party

59%

Yes59%No42%

Republican Party

42%

Yes42%No59%

$5M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

chance

Yes

$21M Vol.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

AfD

78%

Yes78%No23%

SPD

23%

Yes23%No78%

AfD

78%

Yes78%No23%

SPD

23%

Yes23%No78%

$1M Vol.

What will Trump say during remarks in North Carolina?

Hottest

93%

Yes93%No7%

Stock Market

93%

Yes93%No7%

Hottest

93%

Yes93%No7%

Stock Market

93%

Yes93%No7%

$32K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.1%

90%

Yes90%No10%

5.2%

64%

Yes64%No36%

5.1%

90%

Yes90%No10%

5.2%

64%

Yes64%No36%

$462K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31

22%

Yes22%No79%

October 31

15%

Yes15%No86%

December 31

22%

Yes22%No79%

October 31

15%

Yes15%No86%

$14M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)

56%

Yes56%No44%

Ken Paxton (R)

45%

Yes45%No56%

James Talarico (D)

56%

Yes56%No44%

Ken Paxton (R)

45%

Yes45%No56%

$1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

67%

Yes67%No34%

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

67%

Yes67%No34%

$8M Vol.

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic

96%

Yes96%No4%

OpenAI

Yes2%No98%

Anthropic

96%

Yes96%No4%

OpenAI

Yes2%No98%

$3M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 31

60%

Yes60%No40%

October 31

37%

Yes37%No64%

December 31

60%

Yes60%No40%

October 31

37%

Yes37%No64%

$29M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot

51%

Yes51%No50%

Benjamin Netanyahu

31%

Yes31%No70%

Gadi Eizenkot

51%

Yes51%No50%

Benjamin Netanyahu

31%

Yes31%No70%

$38M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep

61%

Yes61%No40%

R Senate, D House

30%

Yes30%No71%

Democrats Sweep

61%

Yes61%No40%

R Senate, D House

30%

Yes30%No71%

$12M Vol.

AC Milan

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

100%

AC Milan

DRAW

Sport

$7M Vol.

·UEL

Barcelona

100%

Real Racing Club

Barcelona

DRAW

Real Racing

$5M Vol.

·LaLiga

Yankees

Twins

100%

Yankees

Twins

$2M Vol.

·MLB

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)

74%

Yes74%No27%

New People (NL)

22%

Yes22%No78%

United Russia (ER)

74%

Yes74%No27%

New People (NL)

22%

Yes22%No78%

$31M Vol.

Tigers

Blue Jays

100%

Tigers

Blue Jays

$1M Vol.

·MLB

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

51%

Yes51%No49%

Marco Rubio

16%

Yes16%No84%

J.D. Vance

51%

Yes51%No49%

Marco Rubio

16%

Yes16%No84%

$705M Vol.

Manchester United FC

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

100%

Manchester

DRAW

Brighton &

$2M Vol.

·EFL CUP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

↓ 70,000

68%

Yes68%No32%

↑ 85,000

56%

Yes56%No44%

↓ 70,000

68%

Yes68%No32%

↑ 85,000

56%

Yes56%No44%

$67M Vol.

·Bitcoin

Bitcoin above ___ on September 17?

68,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

70,000

99%

Yes99%No<1%

68,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

70,000

99%

Yes99%No<1%

$773K Vol.

·Bitcoin

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

18%

Yes18%No82%

Jon Ossoff

16%

Yes16%No84%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

18%

Yes18%No82%

Jon Ossoff

16%

Yes16%No84%

$1B Vol.

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Barcelona

20%

Yes20%No81%

Bayern Munich

16%

Yes16%No85%

Barcelona

20%

Yes20%No81%

Bayern Munich

16%

Yes16%No85%

$34M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen

36%

Yes36%No64%

Édouard Philippe

25%

Yes25%No76%

Marine Le Pen

36%

Yes36%No64%

Édouard Philippe

25%

Yes25%No76%

$135M Vol.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

100%

NK Celje

Bayer 04

DRAW

NK Celje

$700K Vol.

·UEL

Nemiga

100%

Team Nemesis

Nemiga

Team

$421K Vol.

·CS2

Fed Decision in October?

Brewers vs. Pirates

Brewers vs. Pirates

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

Bitcoin Up or Down

Bitcoin Up or Down

All markets

Fed Decision in October?

BTC Up or Down 5m

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Berlin State Election Winner

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

What will Trump say during remarks in North Carolina?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Texas Senate Election Winner

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Bitcoin above ___ on September 17?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Next French Presidential Election

Polymarket | The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

Featured markets

All markets

Fed Decision in October?

BTC Up or Down 5m

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Berlin State Election Winner

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

What will Trump say during remarks in North Carolina?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Texas Senate Election Winner

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Bitcoin above ___ on September 17?

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Next French Presidential Election