Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against President Trump declaring a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official action following reports in late February 2026 that his allies circulated a draft executive order. The proposal, premised on unsubstantiated claims of foreign—particularly Chinese—influence in the 2020 election, aimed to assert federal control over state-run voting processes ahead of the 2026 midterms but faced swift dismissal by Trump himself, who urged Congress to pass voter ID legislation like the SAVE Act instead. Legal experts highlight constitutional barriers, as states hold primary election authority, while Senate Democrats pledged opposition. With focus shifting to border security executive orders and the pre-existing EO 13848 on foreign interference renewed last year, no momentum has built in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$139,348 Vol.
$139,348 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$139,348 Vol.
$139,348 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against President Trump declaring a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official action following reports in late February 2026 that his allies circulated a draft executive order. The proposal, premised on unsubstantiated claims of foreign—particularly Chinese—influence in the 2020 election, aimed to assert federal control over state-run voting processes ahead of the 2026 midterms but faced swift dismissal by Trump himself, who urged Congress to pass voter ID legislation like the SAVE Act instead. Legal experts highlight constitutional barriers, as states hold primary election authority, while Senate Democrats pledged opposition. With focus shifting to border security executive orders and the pre-existing EO 13848 on foreign interference renewed last year, no momentum has built in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$139,348End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against President Trump declaring a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official action following reports in late February 2026 that his allies circulated a draft executive order. The proposal, premised on unsubstantiated claims of foreign—particularly Chinese—influence in the 2020 election, aimed to assert federal control over state-run voting processes ahead of the 2026 midterms but faced swift dismissal by Trump himself, who urged Congress to pass voter ID legislation like the SAVE Act instead. Legal experts highlight constitutional barriers, as states hold primary election authority, while Senate Democrats pledged opposition. With focus shifting to border security executive orders and the pre-existing EO 13848 on foreign interference renewed last year, no momentum has built in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$139,348End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against President Trump declaring a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official action following reports in late February 2026 that his allies circulated a draft executive order. The proposal, premised on unsubstantiated claims of foreign—particularly Chinese—influence in the 2020 election, aimed to assert federal control over state-run voting processes ahead of the 2026 midterms but faced swift dismissal by Trump himself, who urged Congress to pass voter ID legislation like the SAVE Act instead. Legal experts highlight constitutional barriers, as states hold primary election authority, while Senate Democrats pledged opposition. With focus shifting to border security executive orders and the pre-existing EO 13848 on foreign interference renewed last year, no momentum has built in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions