Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Marcy Kaptur's consistent lead in recent polling averages over Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3–6 points. Kaptur's 40-year incumbency advantage and name recognition in this battleground district—where Biden won by just 1 point in 2020—anchor her position, bolstered by strong fundraising and attacks on Merrin's far-right record. Merrin's campaign highlights economic concerns and secures Trump endorsement, but lacks momentum from the past week amid steady early voting turnout. National House control implications heighten scrutiny, with suburban voter shifts and Election Day turnout as key wildcards in this toss-up race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$19,606 交易量
$19,606 交易量
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
57%
共和党
41%
$19,606 交易量
$19,606 交易量
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$55 交易量
57%
共和党
$19,550 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Marcy Kaptur's consistent lead in recent polling averages over Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3–6 points. Kaptur's 40-year incumbency advantage and name recognition in this battleground district—where Biden won by just 1 point in 2020—anchor her position, bolstered by strong fundraising and attacks on Merrin's far-right record. Merrin's campaign highlights economic concerns and secures Trump endorsement, but lacks momentum from the past week amid steady early voting turnout. National House control implications heighten scrutiny, with suburban voter shifts and Election Day turnout as key wildcards in this toss-up race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$19,606结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Marcy Kaptur's consistent lead in recent polling averages over Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3–6 points. Kaptur's 40-year incumbency advantage and name recognition in this battleground district—where Biden won by just 1 point in 2020—anchor her position, bolstered by strong fundraising and attacks on Merrin's far-right record. Merrin's campaign highlights economic concerns and secures Trump endorsement, but lacks momentum from the past week amid steady early voting turnout. National House control implications heighten scrutiny, with suburban voter shifts and Election Day turnout as key wildcards in this toss-up race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,606结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Marcy Kaptur's consistent lead in recent polling averages over Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3–6 points. Kaptur's 40-year incumbency advantage and name recognition in this battleground district—where Biden won by just 1 point in 2020—anchor her position, bolstered by strong fundraising and attacks on Merrin's far-right record. Merrin's campaign highlights economic concerns and secures Trump endorsement, but lacks momentum from the past week amid steady early voting turnout. National House control implications heighten scrutiny, with suburban voter shifts and Election Day turnout as key wildcards in this toss-up race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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