Incumbent Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election in the R+10 New York's 21st Congressional District has opened the race, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 75% implied probability, reflecting the district's strong GOP performance—Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024 amid solid midterm fundamentals. On the GOP side, state party endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen two weeks ago unified support behind the Marine veteran, though self-funded CEO Anthony Constantino leads fundraising with over $7.6 million cash on hand versus Smullen's $500,000 personal loan. Democrats face a fragmented primary featuring well-funded Blake Gendebien, lacking a clear frontrunner. With filing deadline tomorrow and June 23 primaries looming, no polls yet show competitive general election dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
75%
民主党
22%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$6,066 交易量
75%
民主党
$3,860 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election in the R+10 New York's 21st Congressional District has opened the race, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 75% implied probability, reflecting the district's strong GOP performance—Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024 amid solid midterm fundamentals. On the GOP side, state party endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen two weeks ago unified support behind the Marine veteran, though self-funded CEO Anthony Constantino leads fundraising with over $7.6 million cash on hand versus Smullen's $500,000 personal loan. Democrats face a fragmented primary featuring well-funded Blake Gendebien, lacking a clear frontrunner. With filing deadline tomorrow and June 23 primaries looming, no polls yet show competitive general election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$9,927结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election in the R+10 New York's 21st Congressional District has opened the race, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 75% implied probability, reflecting the district's strong GOP performance—Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024 amid solid midterm fundamentals. On the GOP side, state party endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen two weeks ago unified support behind the Marine veteran, though self-funded CEO Anthony Constantino leads fundraising with over $7.6 million cash on hand versus Smullen's $500,000 personal loan. Democrats face a fragmented primary featuring well-funded Blake Gendebien, lacking a clear frontrunner. With filing deadline tomorrow and June 23 primaries looming, no polls yet show competitive general election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,927结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election in the R+10 New York's 21st Congressional District has opened the race, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 75% implied probability, reflecting the district's strong GOP performance—Stefanik won by 24 points in 2024 amid solid midterm fundamentals. On the GOP side, state party endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen two weeks ago unified support behind the Marine veteran, though self-funded CEO Anthony Constantino leads fundraising with over $7.6 million cash on hand versus Smullen's $500,000 personal loan. Democrats face a fragmented primary featuring well-funded Blake Gendebien, lacking a clear frontrunner. With filing deadline tomorrow and June 23 primaries looming, no polls yet show competitive general election dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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