Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain California's 35th Congressional District House seat, driven by her consistent general election victories over challenger Mike Cargile (R)—58% in 2024, 57% in 2022—amid a D+8 partisan voter index despite rightward shifts in Latino turnout during the 2024 presidential race. Massive fundraising disparities, with Torres holding over $500,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's under $3,000 as of late 2025, reinforce her edge, alongside Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms a top-two primary matchup on June 2 favoring the repeat foes, with no credible Democratic challengers. Upsets could stem from a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout in this Inland Empire battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$11,188 交易量
$11,188 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$11,188 交易量
$11,188 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,811 交易量
94%
共和党
$4,377 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain California's 35th Congressional District House seat, driven by her consistent general election victories over challenger Mike Cargile (R)—58% in 2024, 57% in 2022—amid a D+8 partisan voter index despite rightward shifts in Latino turnout during the 2024 presidential race. Massive fundraising disparities, with Torres holding over $500,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's under $3,000 as of late 2025, reinforce her edge, alongside Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms a top-two primary matchup on June 2 favoring the repeat foes, with no credible Democratic challengers. Upsets could stem from a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout in this Inland Empire battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,188结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain California's 35th Congressional District House seat, driven by her consistent general election victories over challenger Mike Cargile (R)—58% in 2024, 57% in 2022—amid a D+8 partisan voter index despite rightward shifts in Latino turnout during the 2024 presidential race. Massive fundraising disparities, with Torres holding over $500,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's under $3,000 as of late 2025, reinforce her edge, alongside Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms a top-two primary matchup on June 2 favoring the repeat foes, with no credible Democratic challengers. Upsets could stem from a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout in this Inland Empire battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,188结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Norma Torres (D) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to retain California's 35th Congressional District House seat, driven by her consistent general election victories over challenger Mike Cargile (R)—58% in 2024, 57% in 2022—amid a D+8 partisan voter index despite rightward shifts in Latino turnout during the 2024 presidential race. Massive fundraising disparities, with Torres holding over $500,000 cash-on-hand versus Cargile's under $3,000 as of late 2025, reinforce her edge, alongside Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The March 26 certified candidate list confirms a top-two primary matchup on June 2 favoring the repeat foes, with no credible Democratic challengers. Upsets could stem from a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout in this Inland Empire battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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