Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' strong reelection track record in California's 35th Congressional District, a D+8 partisan lean area, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic Party win at 92.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Torres defeated repeat challenger Mike Cargile in 2024 (58%-42%), 2022 (57%-43%), and 2020 (69%-31%), bolstered by superior fundraising—$525,000 cash on hand versus Cargile's $2,600 as of late 2025. Post-March 6 filing deadline, the field remains limited, with ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid D), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D), and others affirming the seat's safety. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Torres against Cargile again. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an unforeseen primary upset could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,332 交易量
92%
共和党
$1,734 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' strong reelection track record in California's 35th Congressional District, a D+8 partisan lean area, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic Party win at 92.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Torres defeated repeat challenger Mike Cargile in 2024 (58%-42%), 2022 (57%-43%), and 2020 (69%-31%), bolstered by superior fundraising—$525,000 cash on hand versus Cargile's $2,600 as of late 2025. Post-March 6 filing deadline, the field remains limited, with ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid D), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D), and others affirming the seat's safety. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Torres against Cargile again. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an unforeseen primary upset could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$5,067结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' strong reelection track record in California's 35th Congressional District, a D+8 partisan lean area, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic Party win at 92.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Torres defeated repeat challenger Mike Cargile in 2024 (58%-42%), 2022 (57%-43%), and 2020 (69%-31%), bolstered by superior fundraising—$525,000 cash on hand versus Cargile's $2,600 as of late 2025. Post-March 6 filing deadline, the field remains limited, with ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid D), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D), and others affirming the seat's safety. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Torres against Cargile again. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an unforeseen primary upset could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,067结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' strong reelection track record in California's 35th Congressional District, a D+8 partisan lean area, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic Party win at 92.5% implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Torres defeated repeat challenger Mike Cargile in 2024 (58%-42%), 2022 (57%-43%), and 2020 (69%-31%), bolstered by superior fundraising—$525,000 cash on hand versus Cargile's $2,600 as of late 2025. Post-March 6 filing deadline, the field remains limited, with ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid D), Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D), and others affirming the seat's safety. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Torres against Cargile again. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or an unforeseen primary upset could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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