Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+24) and incumbent Eric Burlison's strong 2022 reelection margin of 33 points over Democrat William Thompson, who is running again. Southwest Missouri's conservative rural base, where Donald Trump captured nearly 70% in 2020, underpins this positioning, with recent polling averages showing Burlison ahead by 25-30 points amid steady early voting ahead of the November 5 general election. Absent major catalysts like a Burlison scandal, legal challenge, or surge in Democratic turnout from independents, the race remains on track for Republican retention.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$4,717 交易量
92%
民主党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+24) and incumbent Eric Burlison's strong 2022 reelection margin of 33 points over Democrat William Thompson, who is running again. Southwest Missouri's conservative rural base, where Donald Trump captured nearly 70% in 2020, underpins this positioning, with recent polling averages showing Burlison ahead by 25-30 points amid steady early voting ahead of the November 5 general election. Absent major catalysts like a Burlison scandal, legal challenge, or surge in Democratic turnout from independents, the race remains on track for Republican retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$4,717结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+24) and incumbent Eric Burlison's strong 2022 reelection margin of 33 points over Democrat William Thompson, who is running again. Southwest Missouri's conservative rural base, where Donald Trump captured nearly 70% in 2020, underpins this positioning, with recent polling averages showing Burlison ahead by 25-30 points amid steady early voting ahead of the November 5 general election. Absent major catalysts like a Burlison scandal, legal challenge, or surge in Democratic turnout from independents, the race remains on track for Republican retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,717结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep Republican tilt (Cook PVI R+24) and incumbent Eric Burlison's strong 2022 reelection margin of 33 points over Democrat William Thompson, who is running again. Southwest Missouri's conservative rural base, where Donald Trump captured nearly 70% in 2020, underpins this positioning, with recent polling averages showing Burlison ahead by 25-30 points amid steady early voting ahead of the November 5 general election. Absent major catalysts like a Burlison scandal, legal challenge, or surge in Democratic turnout from independents, the race remains on track for Republican retention.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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