Incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection prospects in the D+8 New York's 20th Congressional District underpin trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93% to win the November 2026 general election. Recent Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating, updated March 12, aligns with Inside Elections and Sabato's Safe Democratic assessments, reflecting Tonko's unopposed Democratic primary path and historical victories by 22-point margins in 2024 and 2022 against underfunded Republicans. With nominee Ralph Ambrosio also unopposed on the GOP side and no public polling yet, the market anticipates minimal competitiveness absent a national Republican wave, Tonko scandal, or abrupt retirement before the June 23 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$18,032 交易量
$18,032 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$18,032 交易量
$18,032 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$10,611 交易量
93%
共和党
$7,420 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection prospects in the D+8 New York's 20th Congressional District underpin trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93% to win the November 2026 general election. Recent Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating, updated March 12, aligns with Inside Elections and Sabato's Safe Democratic assessments, reflecting Tonko's unopposed Democratic primary path and historical victories by 22-point margins in 2024 and 2022 against underfunded Republicans. With nominee Ralph Ambrosio also unopposed on the GOP side and no public polling yet, the market anticipates minimal competitiveness absent a national Republican wave, Tonko scandal, or abrupt retirement before the June 23 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$18,032结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection prospects in the D+8 New York's 20th Congressional District underpin trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93% to win the November 2026 general election. Recent Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating, updated March 12, aligns with Inside Elections and Sabato's Safe Democratic assessments, reflecting Tonko's unopposed Democratic primary path and historical victories by 22-point margins in 2024 and 2022 against underfunded Republicans. With nominee Ralph Ambrosio also unopposed on the GOP side and no public polling yet, the market anticipates minimal competitiveness absent a national Republican wave, Tonko scandal, or abrupt retirement before the June 23 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,032结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection prospects in the D+8 New York's 20th Congressional District underpin trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93% to win the November 2026 general election. Recent Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating, updated March 12, aligns with Inside Elections and Sabato's Safe Democratic assessments, reflecting Tonko's unopposed Democratic primary path and historical victories by 22-point margins in 2024 and 2022 against underfunded Republicans. With nominee Ralph Ambrosio also unopposed on the GOP side and no public polling yet, the market anticipates minimal competitiveness absent a national Republican wave, Tonko scandal, or abrupt retirement before the June 23 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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