US President Donald Trump's March 31 announcement that the military campaign against Iran could wrap up in two to three weeks—with or without a deal—has shaped trader consensus toward a near-term end to hostilities launched March 1 via US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles on Israel and strikes on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain, plus oil tanker attacks near Qatar, sustaining low-level exchanges. The US reports neutralizing Iran's nuclear threat, with no ground invasion decided despite buildup preparations. Trump's planned national address this week, alongside backchannel talks, may signal de-escalation, though Iranian rejectionism and Strait of Hormuz risks leave outcomes uncertain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$302,110 交易量
2026-03-31
March 30
<1%
4月15日
23%
4月30日
56%
5月31日
87%
6月30日
87%
$302,110 交易量
March 30
$25,448 交易量
<1%
4月15日
$24,565 交易量
23%
4月30日
$14,509 交易量
56%
5月31日
$8,628 交易量
87%
6月30日
$6,288 交易量
87%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US President Donald Trump's March 31 announcement that the military campaign against Iran could wrap up in two to three weeks—with or without a deal—has shaped trader consensus toward a near-term end to hostilities launched March 1 via US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles on Israel and strikes on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain, plus oil tanker attacks near Qatar, sustaining low-level exchanges. The US reports neutralizing Iran's nuclear threat, with no ground invasion decided despite buildup preparations. Trump's planned national address this week, alongside backchannel talks, may signal de-escalation, though Iranian rejectionism and Strait of Hormuz risks leave outcomes uncertain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
交易量
$302,110结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US President Donald Trump's March 31 announcement that the military campaign against Iran could wrap up in two to three weeks—with or without a deal—has shaped trader consensus toward a near-term end to hostilities launched March 1 via US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles on Israel and strikes on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain, plus oil tanker attacks near Qatar, sustaining low-level exchanges. The US reports neutralizing Iran's nuclear threat, with no ground invasion decided despite buildup preparations. Trump's planned national address this week, alongside backchannel talks, may signal de-escalation, though Iranian rejectionism and Strait of Hormuz risks leave outcomes uncertain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$302,110结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US President Donald Trump's March 31 announcement that the military campaign against Iran could wrap up in two to three weeks—with or without a deal—has shaped trader consensus toward a near-term end to hostilities launched March 1 via US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles on Israel and strikes on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain, plus oil tanker attacks near Qatar, sustaining low-level exchanges. The US reports neutralizing Iran's nuclear threat, with no ground invasion decided despite buildup preparations. Trump's planned national address this week, alongside backchannel talks, may signal de-escalation, though Iranian rejectionism and Strait of Hormuz risks leave outcomes uncertain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题