Trader consensus gives Democrats an 86.5% implied probability of winning Michigan's 7th Congressional District, reflecting freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett's narrow 2024 victory in this battleground encompassing swing counties like Livingston and Shiawassee alongside Democratic-leaning Ingham. Recent polling from late March shows Democratic primary frontrunner William Lawrence commanding 45% support, signaling potential consolidation ahead of the August 4 primary against challengers like Bridget Brink, who secured former House Speaker Joe Tate's endorsement earlier this month. Midterm dynamics historically disadvantage the president's party, compounded by early 2026 surveys indicating low Trump approval in the district, positioning Barrett as vulnerable despite his incumbency advantage. The August primaries and general election on November 3 remain pivotal catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
87%
共和党
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$919 交易量
87%
共和党
$317 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats an 86.5% implied probability of winning Michigan's 7th Congressional District, reflecting freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett's narrow 2024 victory in this battleground encompassing swing counties like Livingston and Shiawassee alongside Democratic-leaning Ingham. Recent polling from late March shows Democratic primary frontrunner William Lawrence commanding 45% support, signaling potential consolidation ahead of the August 4 primary against challengers like Bridget Brink, who secured former House Speaker Joe Tate's endorsement earlier this month. Midterm dynamics historically disadvantage the president's party, compounded by early 2026 surveys indicating low Trump approval in the district, positioning Barrett as vulnerable despite his incumbency advantage. The August primaries and general election on November 3 remain pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$1,236结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats an 86.5% implied probability of winning Michigan's 7th Congressional District, reflecting freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett's narrow 2024 victory in this battleground encompassing swing counties like Livingston and Shiawassee alongside Democratic-leaning Ingham. Recent polling from late March shows Democratic primary frontrunner William Lawrence commanding 45% support, signaling potential consolidation ahead of the August 4 primary against challengers like Bridget Brink, who secured former House Speaker Joe Tate's endorsement earlier this month. Midterm dynamics historically disadvantage the president's party, compounded by early 2026 surveys indicating low Trump approval in the district, positioning Barrett as vulnerable despite his incumbency advantage. The August primaries and general election on November 3 remain pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,236结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Democrats an 86.5% implied probability of winning Michigan's 7th Congressional District, reflecting freshman Republican incumbent Tom Barrett's narrow 2024 victory in this battleground encompassing swing counties like Livingston and Shiawassee alongside Democratic-leaning Ingham. Recent polling from late March shows Democratic primary frontrunner William Lawrence commanding 45% support, signaling potential consolidation ahead of the August 4 primary against challengers like Bridget Brink, who secured former House Speaker Joe Tate's endorsement earlier this month. Midterm dynamics historically disadvantage the president's party, compounded by early 2026 surveys indicating low Trump approval in the district, positioning Barrett as vulnerable despite his incumbency advantage. The August primaries and general election on November 3 remain pivotal catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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