Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters' commanding position in California's 50th Congressional District, bolstered by the legislature's Prop 50 redistricting maps enacted after November 2025 passage, has solidified trader consensus at 93% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election. The newly drawn district carries a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 88th most Democratic nationwide—and forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Biden's 65% hypothetical 2020 performance there. Peters, who filed for reelection in February 2026 with $2.48 million cash on hand, dominated 2024 (64%) and 2022 (63%) amid multiple Democratic primary challengers. Recent GOP entrant Steve Cohen poses limited threat in the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a major Peters scandal, superior Republican recruitment, or a national GOP midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$18,300 交易量
$18,300 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$18,300 交易量
$18,300 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$13,351 交易量
93%
共和党
$4,949 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters' commanding position in California's 50th Congressional District, bolstered by the legislature's Prop 50 redistricting maps enacted after November 2025 passage, has solidified trader consensus at 93% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election. The newly drawn district carries a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 88th most Democratic nationwide—and forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Biden's 65% hypothetical 2020 performance there. Peters, who filed for reelection in February 2026 with $2.48 million cash on hand, dominated 2024 (64%) and 2022 (63%) amid multiple Democratic primary challengers. Recent GOP entrant Steve Cohen poses limited threat in the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a major Peters scandal, superior Republican recruitment, or a national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$18,300结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters' commanding position in California's 50th Congressional District, bolstered by the legislature's Prop 50 redistricting maps enacted after November 2025 passage, has solidified trader consensus at 93% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election. The newly drawn district carries a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 88th most Democratic nationwide—and forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Biden's 65% hypothetical 2020 performance there. Peters, who filed for reelection in February 2026 with $2.48 million cash on hand, dominated 2024 (64%) and 2022 (63%) amid multiple Democratic primary challengers. Recent GOP entrant Steve Cohen poses limited threat in the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a major Peters scandal, superior Republican recruitment, or a national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,300结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters' commanding position in California's 50th Congressional District, bolstered by the legislature's Prop 50 redistricting maps enacted after November 2025 passage, has solidified trader consensus at 93% odds for a Democratic Party win in the November 2026 general election. The newly drawn district carries a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 88th most Democratic nationwide—and forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Biden's 65% hypothetical 2020 performance there. Peters, who filed for reelection in February 2026 with $2.48 million cash on hand, dominated 2024 (64%) and 2022 (63%) amid multiple Democratic primary challengers. Recent GOP entrant Steve Cohen poses limited threat in the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a major Peters scandal, superior Republican recruitment, or a national GOP midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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