Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Minority Whip with a decade in office, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the CA-33 House seat due to the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his consistent 58%+ general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and dominant fundraising with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Multiple Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—fragment the GOP field ahead of California's June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing Aguilar against a weaker opponent in November. Scenarios challenging this include a GOP consolidation behind a well-funded contender winning the primary outright, an Aguilar scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Minority Whip with a decade in office, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the CA-33 House seat due to the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his consistent 58%+ general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and dominant fundraising with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Multiple Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—fragment the GOP field ahead of California's June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing Aguilar against a weaker opponent in November. Scenarios challenging this include a GOP consolidation behind a well-funded contender winning the primary outright, an Aguilar scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Minority Whip with a decade in office, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the CA-33 House seat due to the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his consistent 58%+ general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and dominant fundraising with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Multiple Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—fragment the GOP field ahead of California's June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing Aguilar against a weaker opponent in November. Scenarios challenging this include a GOP consolidation behind a well-funded contender winning the primary outright, an Aguilar scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Minority Whip with a decade in office, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the CA-33 House seat due to the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his consistent 58%+ general election margins in 2022 and 2024, and dominant fundraising with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Multiple Republican primary challengers—Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems—fragment the GOP field ahead of California's June 2 top-two primary, likely advancing Aguilar against a weaker opponent in November. Scenarios challenging this include a GOP consolidation behind a well-funded contender winning the primary outright, an Aguilar scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave shifting battleground turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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