Trader consensus prices Democrats at 91.5% to win California's 33rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan lean, incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong reelection track record—including a 58.8% victory in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3.2 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by a fragmented Republican primary field featuring multiple challengers like Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems, likely advancing Aguilar against a weak general election opponent under California's top-two system. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 primary. Realistic challenges include an unlikely primary upset for Aguilar, a consolidated GOP surge, or late scandal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democrats at 91.5% to win California's 33rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan lean, incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong reelection track record—including a 58.8% victory in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3.2 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by a fragmented Republican primary field featuring multiple challengers like Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems, likely advancing Aguilar against a weak general election opponent under California's top-two system. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 primary. Realistic challenges include an unlikely primary upset for Aguilar, a consolidated GOP surge, or late scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democrats at 91.5% to win California's 33rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan lean, incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong reelection track record—including a 58.8% victory in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3.2 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by a fragmented Republican primary field featuring multiple challengers like Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems, likely advancing Aguilar against a weak general election opponent under California's top-two system. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 primary. Realistic challenges include an unlikely primary upset for Aguilar, a consolidated GOP surge, or late scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democrats at 91.5% to win California's 33rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan lean, incumbent Pete Aguilar's strong reelection track record—including a 58.8% victory in 2024—and his dominant fundraising with over $3.2 million cash on hand as of late 2025. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by a fragmented Republican primary field featuring multiple challengers like Tom Herman, Ernest Richter, Stephanie Vargas, and Eugene Weems, likely advancing Aguilar against a weak general election opponent under California's top-two system. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics ahead of the June 2 primary. Realistic challenges include an unlikely primary upset for Aguilar, a consolidated GOP surge, or late scandal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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