Proposition 50's 2025 passage redrew California's 1st Congressional District for the full-term race, shifting it from an R+22 stronghold to a D+11 battleground by adding Democratic-leaning Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas like Modoc and Siskiyou counties. This structural change, alongside former State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's strong candidacy, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Democrats at 91.5%, bolstered by a late February David Binder poll showing McGuire leading Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters. McGuire's fundraising dominance—nearly $400,000 cash-on-hand entering the cycle—and California Democratic Party endorsement further solidify his position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. Republican consolidation behind Trump-endorsed Gallagher, Democratic primary vote-splitting among challengers like Audrey Denney, or a GOP-friendly midterm environment could challenge this outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$13,784 交易量
$13,784 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$13,784 交易量
$13,784 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$13,784 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Proposition 50's 2025 passage redrew California's 1st Congressional District for the full-term race, shifting it from an R+22 stronghold to a D+11 battleground by adding Democratic-leaning Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas like Modoc and Siskiyou counties. This structural change, alongside former State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's strong candidacy, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Democrats at 91.5%, bolstered by a late February David Binder poll showing McGuire leading Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters. McGuire's fundraising dominance—nearly $400,000 cash-on-hand entering the cycle—and California Democratic Party endorsement further solidify his position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. Republican consolidation behind Trump-endorsed Gallagher, Democratic primary vote-splitting among challengers like Audrey Denney, or a GOP-friendly midterm environment could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$13,784结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Proposition 50's 2025 passage redrew California's 1st Congressional District for the full-term race, shifting it from an R+22 stronghold to a D+11 battleground by adding Democratic-leaning Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas like Modoc and Siskiyou counties. This structural change, alongside former State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's strong candidacy, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Democrats at 91.5%, bolstered by a late February David Binder poll showing McGuire leading Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters. McGuire's fundraising dominance—nearly $400,000 cash-on-hand entering the cycle—and California Democratic Party endorsement further solidify his position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. Republican consolidation behind Trump-endorsed Gallagher, Democratic primary vote-splitting among challengers like Audrey Denney, or a GOP-friendly midterm environment could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,784结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Proposition 50's 2025 passage redrew California's 1st Congressional District for the full-term race, shifting it from an R+22 stronghold to a D+11 battleground by adding Democratic-leaning Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas like Modoc and Siskiyou counties. This structural change, alongside former State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire's strong candidacy, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Democrats at 91.5%, bolstered by a late February David Binder poll showing McGuire leading Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher 33%-30% among likely voters. McGuire's fundraising dominance—nearly $400,000 cash-on-hand entering the cycle—and California Democratic Party endorsement further solidify his position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. Republican consolidation behind Trump-endorsed Gallagher, Democratic primary vote-splitting among challengers like Audrey Denney, or a GOP-friendly midterm environment could challenge this outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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