Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's Prop 50 redistricting—upheld by courts earlier this year—shifted CA-01 from a Solid Republican district to a Democratic-leaning one (55D-44R) by incorporating Sonoma County and other blue areas, propelling trader consensus to 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner in the November full-term general election. State Sen. Mike McGuire leads early polls at 33% over GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's 30% among regular-term voters, bolstered by Democratic advantages in turnout and national midterm trends favoring the president's party. The shared June 2 top-two primary looms large; a Democratic split allowing two Republicans to advance, Gallagher's special election focus diluting GOP resources, or a McGuire scandal could challenge this outlook, though structural map changes pose high barriers to reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$13,784 交易量
$13,784 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$13,784 交易量
$13,784 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$13,784 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's Prop 50 redistricting—upheld by courts earlier this year—shifted CA-01 from a Solid Republican district to a Democratic-leaning one (55D-44R) by incorporating Sonoma County and other blue areas, propelling trader consensus to 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner in the November full-term general election. State Sen. Mike McGuire leads early polls at 33% over GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's 30% among regular-term voters, bolstered by Democratic advantages in turnout and national midterm trends favoring the president's party. The shared June 2 top-two primary looms large; a Democratic split allowing two Republicans to advance, Gallagher's special election focus diluting GOP resources, or a McGuire scandal could challenge this outlook, though structural map changes pose high barriers to reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$13,784结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's Prop 50 redistricting—upheld by courts earlier this year—shifted CA-01 from a Solid Republican district to a Democratic-leaning one (55D-44R) by incorporating Sonoma County and other blue areas, propelling trader consensus to 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner in the November full-term general election. State Sen. Mike McGuire leads early polls at 33% over GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's 30% among regular-term voters, bolstered by Democratic advantages in turnout and national midterm trends favoring the president's party. The shared June 2 top-two primary looms large; a Democratic split allowing two Republicans to advance, Gallagher's special election focus diluting GOP resources, or a McGuire scandal could challenge this outlook, though structural map changes pose high barriers to reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,784结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January 2026, California's Prop 50 redistricting—upheld by courts earlier this year—shifted CA-01 from a Solid Republican district to a Democratic-leaning one (55D-44R) by incorporating Sonoma County and other blue areas, propelling trader consensus to 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner in the November full-term general election. State Sen. Mike McGuire leads early polls at 33% over GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's 30% among regular-term voters, bolstered by Democratic advantages in turnout and national midterm trends favoring the president's party. The shared June 2 top-two primary looms large; a Democratic split allowing two Republicans to advance, Gallagher's special election focus diluting GOP resources, or a McGuire scandal could challenge this outlook, though structural map changes pose high barriers to reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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