Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva's commanding 69%-29% special election victory in September 2025 over Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., combined with the district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party in the AZ-07 House race. Grijalva, succeeding her late father Raúl who won here 63%-37% in 2024 against the same opponent, holds a massive fundraising edge with $375,000 cash-on-hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025. Both appear unopposed ahead of the July 21 primaries, cementing the safe Democratic tilt. A stronger Republican nominee, Grijalva scandal, or massive midterm Republican wave could challenge this, though historical margins and Tucson-Yuma demographics pose steep barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,715 交易量
91%
共和党
$3,173 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva's commanding 69%-29% special election victory in September 2025 over Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., combined with the district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party in the AZ-07 House race. Grijalva, succeeding her late father Raúl who won here 63%-37% in 2024 against the same opponent, holds a massive fundraising edge with $375,000 cash-on-hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025. Both appear unopposed ahead of the July 21 primaries, cementing the safe Democratic tilt. A stronger Republican nominee, Grijalva scandal, or massive midterm Republican wave could challenge this, though historical margins and Tucson-Yuma demographics pose steep barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,888结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva's commanding 69%-29% special election victory in September 2025 over Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., combined with the district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party in the AZ-07 House race. Grijalva, succeeding her late father Raúl who won here 63%-37% in 2024 against the same opponent, holds a massive fundraising edge with $375,000 cash-on-hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025. Both appear unopposed ahead of the July 21 primaries, cementing the safe Democratic tilt. A stronger Republican nominee, Grijalva scandal, or massive midterm Republican wave could challenge this, though historical margins and Tucson-Yuma demographics pose steep barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,888结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva's commanding 69%-29% special election victory in September 2025 over Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., combined with the district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party in the AZ-07 House race. Grijalva, succeeding her late father Raúl who won here 63%-37% in 2024 against the same opponent, holds a massive fundraising edge with $375,000 cash-on-hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025. Both appear unopposed ahead of the July 21 primaries, cementing the safe Democratic tilt. A stronger Republican nominee, Grijalva scandal, or massive midterm Republican wave could challenge this, though historical margins and Tucson-Yuma demographics pose steep barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题