California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent election results, including the incumbent's 75% share in 2024. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and November general election, with Maxine Waters seeking reelection against limited Republican opposition. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical patterns for safe seats in similar districts. Scenarios that could shift outcomes remain limited and would require significant late developments, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific events before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,590 交易量
$22,590 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$22,590 交易量
$22,590 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,325 交易量
95%
共和党
$14,265 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent election results, including the incumbent's 75% share in 2024. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and November general election, with Maxine Waters seeking reelection against limited Republican opposition. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical patterns for safe seats in similar districts. Scenarios that could shift outcomes remain limited and would require significant late developments, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific events before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
交易量
$22,590结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent election results, including the incumbent's 75% share in 2024. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and November general election, with Maxine Waters seeking reelection against limited Republican opposition. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical patterns for safe seats in similar districts. Scenarios that could shift outcomes remain limited and would require significant late developments, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific events before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,590结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and consistent election results, including the incumbent's 75% share in 2024. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and November general election, with Maxine Waters seeking reelection against limited Republican opposition. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and historical patterns for safe seats in similar districts. Scenarios that could shift outcomes remain limited and would require significant late developments, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific events before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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