Politics predictions & odds

·
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Politics

Trump

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

96%

Kevin Warsh

$420m Vol.

$8m today

$57m Liq.

1,412

Ends in 11 months

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

30%

Gavin Newsom

$616m Vol.

$7m today

$31m Liq.

474

Ends in over 2 years

US strikes Iran by...?

Politics

Iran

US strikes Iran by...?

46%

June 30

$188m Vol.

$7m today

$1m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

Fed decision in March?

Politics

Fed

Fed decision in March?

86%

No change

$74m Vol.

$4m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

Politics

Iran

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

100%

February 6

$5m Vol.

$3m today

$3m Liq.

602

Ends in 5 days

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

25%

JD Vance

$263m Vol.

$3m today

$18m Liq.

626

Ends in over 2 years

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Elections

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

48%

J.D. Vance

$256m Vol.

$3m today

$13m Liq.

241

Ends in over 2 years

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

27%

220-239

$10m Vol.

$3m today

$2m Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 5 - February 7, 2026?

88%

40-64

$3m Vol.

$2m today

$451k Liq.

Ends in about 5 hours

Portugal Presidential Election

Politics

Elections

Portugal Presidential Election

99%

António José Seguro (IND)

$133m Vol.

$2m today

$21m Liq.

1,638

Ends in 1 day

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

Politics

Elections

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

81%

People’s Party (PPLE)

$7m Vol.

$1m today

$418k Liq.

194

Ends in about 12 hours

US next strikes Iran on...?

Politics

Iran

US next strikes Iran on...?

76%

No strike by February 28

$9m Vol.

$1m today

$756k Liq.

Ends in 20 days

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

Politics

Culture

Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?

13%

260-279

$3m Vol.

$843k today

$907k Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Where will the US & Iran meet in person?

Politics

Iran

Where will the US & Iran meet in person?

100%

Oman

$1m Vol.

$793k today

$2m Liq.

188

Ends in 5 days

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Politics

Trump

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

69%

Delcy Rodríguez

$17m Vol.

$617k today

$1m Liq.

154

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Politics

Ukraine

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

10%

$15m Vol.

$550k today

$651k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Politics

Gaza

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

55%

February 8

$1m Vol.

$514k today

$23.9k Liq.

Ends in 20 days

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Politics

Trump

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

87%

250-500k

$6m Vol.

$466k today

$79.4k Liq.

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by...?

Politics

Trump

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by...?

100%

February 6

$723k Vol.

$447k today

$242k Liq.

107

Ends in 20 days

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Politics

Iran

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

7%

$7m Vol.

$410k today

$337k Liq.

Ends in 20 days