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Politics predictions & odds

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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

25%

Gavin Newsom

$1B Vol.

$3M today

$57M Liq.

723

Ends in over 2 years

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

74%

December 31

$90M Vol.

$3M today

$3M Liq.

1,912

Ends in 8 months

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

37%

J.D. Vance

$609M Vol.

$3M today

$25M Liq.

385

Ends in over 2 years

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

18%

December 31

$35M Vol.

$2M today

$764K Liq.

1,144

Ends in 8 months

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

100%

Péter Magyar

$101M Vol.

$2M today

$5M Liq.

2,118

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%

JD Vance

$573M Vol.

$1M today

$28M Liq.

901

Ends in over 2 years

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

97%

No change

$20M Vol.

$1M today

$3M Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

24%

Jordan Bardella

$64M Vol.

$819K today

$4M Liq.

466

Ends in 12 months

Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?

29%

140-159

$4M Vol.

$817K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

27%

May 31

$11M Vol.

$743K today

$172K Liq.

621

Ends in 22 days

California Governor Election Winner

California Governor Election Winner

48%

Xavier Becerra

$19M Vol.

$465K today

$2M Liq.

54

Ends in 6 months

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

44%

Flávio Bolsonaro

$67M Vol.

$460K today

$5M Liq.

6,112

Ends in 5 months

Will Trump visit China by...?
Politics·Trump

Will Trump visit China by...?

97%

June 30

$31M Vol.

$447K today

$433K Liq.

665

Starmer out by...?
Politics·UK

Starmer out by...?

49%

December 31

$18M Vol.

$418K today

$186K Liq.

746

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

$17M Vol.

$392K today

$879K Liq.

1

Ends in 22 days

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

25%

December 31

$12M Vol.

$379K today

$477K Liq.

123

Ends in 8 months

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

73%

June 30

$15M Vol.

$377K today

$304K Liq.

409

Ends in about 2 months

Epstein suicide note released by...?
Politics·Trump

Epstein suicide note released by...?

16%

May 31

$716K Vol.

$376K today

$99.4K Liq.

157

Ends in 22 days

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

7%

$23M Vol.

$335K today

$980K Liq.

73

Ends in 8 months

Elon Musk # tweets May 7 - May 9, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 7 - May 9, 2026?

70%

40-64

$616K Vol.

$333K today

$215K Liq.

Ends in about 17 hours

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Politics.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Politics that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.8B in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 25% chance to Gavin Newsom. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Politics predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.