Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 11°C as Munich's highest temperature on March 18, driven by high-resolution forecasts from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble models projecting daytime highs capped at 10-11°C amid persistent cool northerly flows and cloudy conditions. Verified soundings and recent observations confirm stable boundary layer temperatures around 8-10°C aloft, suppressing surface warming, with historical March data showing averages of 9-12°C rarely exceeded under similar synoptic patterns. This positioning aligns with low model spread, implying over 99% confidence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen breakdown in cloud cover or sudden southerly wind shift, though current analogues suggest less than 1% probability, per NOAA reanalysis precedents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мюнхене 18 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Мюнхене 18 марта?
11°C 100.0%
5°C или ниже <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$7,558 Объем
$7,558 Объем
5°C или ниже
Нет
6°C
Нет
7°C
Нет
8°C
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Да
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C или выше
Нет
11°C 100.0%
5°C или ниже <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$7,558 Объем
$7,558 Объем
5°C или ниже
Нет
6°C
Нет
7°C
Нет
8°C
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Да
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C или выше
Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 14, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 11°C as Munich's highest temperature on March 18, driven by high-resolution forecasts from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble models projecting daytime highs capped at 10-11°C amid persistent cool northerly flows and cloudy conditions. Verified soundings and recent observations confirm stable boundary layer temperatures around 8-10°C aloft, suppressing surface warming, with historical March data showing averages of 9-12°C rarely exceeded under similar synoptic patterns. This positioning aligns with low model spread, implying over 99% confidence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen breakdown in cloud cover or sudden southerly wind shift, though current analogues suggest less than 1% probability, per NOAA reanalysis precedents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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