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Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,351,373 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,351,373 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$43,964 Vol.

5%

↑ 5.25%

$139,602 Vol.

4%

↑ 5.0%

$11,758 Vol.

5%

↑ 4.75%

$70,143 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$13,865 Vol.

6%

↑ 4.25%

$22,844 Vol.

8%

↓ 3.25%

$56,441 Vol.

71%

↓ 3.0%

$235,918 Vol.

30%

↓ 2.75%

$268,159 Vol.

15%

↓ 2.5%

$180,500 Vol.

11%

↓ 2.25%

$23,063 Vol.

8%

↓ 2.0%

$15,119 Vol.

7%

↓ 1.75%

$7,427 Vol.

7%

↓ 1.5%

$24,923 Vol.

6%

↓ 1.25%

$938 Vol.

4%

↓ 1.0%

$1,761 Vol.

4%

↓ 0.75%

$388 Vol.

8%

↓ 0.5%

$95,496 Vol.

4%

↓ 0.25%

$119,275 Vol.

4%

↓ 0%

$10,784 Vol.

4%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with effective rates near 3.64% per recent data. Trader consensus via CME FedWatch futures prices in a mostly flat path around 3.6% through 2026, aligning with the latest dot plot's median projection of 3.4% year-end 2026 and 3.1% by 2027, despite March CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks. March unemployment eased to 4.3%, bolstering soft-landing hopes, but minutes revealed growing hike openness. Key catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI release, which could shift rate cut timing.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,351,373
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with effective rates near 3.64% per recent data. Trader consensus via CME FedWatch futures prices in a mostly flat path around 3.6% through 2026, aligning with the latest dot plot's median projection of 3.4% year-end 2026 and 3.1% by 2027, despite March CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks. March unemployment eased to 4.3%, bolstering soft-landing hopes, but minutes revealed growing hike openness. Key catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI release, which could shift rate cut timing.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,351,373
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Related

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Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

68%
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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?

37%
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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

36%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↓ 3.25%" at 71%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↓ 3.25%" at 71%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.