Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified consensus against near-term easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 17-18 FOMC statement held rates steady, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid sticky inflation near 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI and a robust labor market, capped by yesterday's nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns closely with CME FedWatch odds. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly weak April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds, or surging energy prices from geopolitical tensions prompting hike risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 5%
25 bps increase 2.8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,493,545 Vol.
$5,493,545 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 5%
25 bps increase 2.8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,493,545 Vol.
$5,493,545 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,594,664 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$749,348 Vol.
5%
No change
$1,139,519 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$1,094,434 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$915,579 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified consensus against near-term easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 17-18 FOMC statement held rates steady, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid sticky inflation near 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI and a robust labor market, capped by yesterday's nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns closely with CME FedWatch odds. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly weak April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds, or surging energy prices from geopolitical tensions prompting hike risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$5,493,545End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified consensus against near-term easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 17-18 FOMC statement held rates steady, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid sticky inflation near 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI and a robust labor market, capped by yesterday's nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns closely with CME FedWatch odds. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly weak April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds, or surging energy prices from geopolitical tensions prompting hike risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,493,545End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified consensus against near-term easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 17-18 FOMC statement held rates steady, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026 amid sticky inflation near 2.4% year-over-year in February CPI and a robust labor market, capped by yesterday's nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—far exceeding 60,000 forecasts—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns closely with CME FedWatch odds. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly weak April jobs or CPI data due April 10, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds, or surging energy prices from geopolitical tensions prompting hike risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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