Trader consensus leans heavily against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, with "No" shares at 83.5%, reflecting Iran's long history of issuing withdrawal threats—such as parliamentary bills in early November 2024 approving potential exit if IAEA refers it to the UN Security Council—without following through. Recent IAEA Board censure on November 21 prompted Iran to announce new uranium enrichment sites and advanced centrifuges, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated withdrawal remains off the table, requiring Supreme Leader approval amid ongoing diplomacy for sanctions relief. Escalations like October Israel-Iran strikes have not triggered formal NPT exit procedures, underscoring posturing over action in nuclear standoffs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$65,004 Vol.
$65,004 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$65,004 Vol.
$65,004 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$65,004End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,004End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans heavily against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, with "No" shares at 83.5%, reflecting Iran's long history of issuing withdrawal threats—such as parliamentary bills in early November 2024 approving potential exit if IAEA refers it to the UN Security Council—without following through. Recent IAEA Board censure on November 21 prompted Iran to announce new uranium enrichment sites and advanced centrifuges, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated withdrawal remains off the table, requiring Supreme Leader approval amid ongoing diplomacy for sanctions relief. Escalations like October Israel-Iran strikes have not triggered formal NPT exit procedures, underscoring posturing over action in nuclear standoffs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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