Pakistan-led mediation efforts for a US-Iran ceasefire collapsed within the last 24 hours, as Tehran refused to engage US representatives in Islamabad and rejected a proposed 48-hour truce amid day 36 of escalating airstrikes and retaliatory threats. US strikes have targeted Iranian infrastructure, including bridges, while Vice President Vance signaled openness to de-escalation contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, curbing nuclear activities, and halting proxy support for groups like Hezbollah. Diplomatic deadlocks persist despite prior back-channel proposals via Oman and Pakistan, with President Trump issuing a 10-day ultimatum on Hormuz access. These military escalations and hardened stances drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions, though breakthroughs could emerge from renewed multilateral talks or Hormuz concessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$89,278,779 Vol.
April 7
1%
April 15
6%
April 30
18%
May 31
34%
June 30
46%
December 31
71%
$89,278,779 Vol.
April 7
$9,568,655 Vol.
1%
April 15
$12,648,213 Vol.
6%
April 30
$11,018,403 Vol.
18%
May 31
$3,823,574 Vol.
34%
June 30
$3,210,386 Vol.
46%
December 31
$1,139,697 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Pakistan-led mediation efforts for a US-Iran ceasefire collapsed within the last 24 hours, as Tehran refused to engage US representatives in Islamabad and rejected a proposed 48-hour truce amid day 36 of escalating airstrikes and retaliatory threats. US strikes have targeted Iranian infrastructure, including bridges, while Vice President Vance signaled openness to de-escalation contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, curbing nuclear activities, and halting proxy support for groups like Hezbollah. Diplomatic deadlocks persist despite prior back-channel proposals via Oman and Pakistan, with President Trump issuing a 10-day ultimatum on Hormuz access. These military escalations and hardened stances drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions, though breakthroughs could emerge from renewed multilateral talks or Hormuz concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$89,278,779Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Pakistan-led mediation efforts for a US-Iran ceasefire collapsed within the last 24 hours, as Tehran refused to engage US representatives in Islamabad and rejected a proposed 48-hour truce amid day 36 of escalating airstrikes and retaliatory threats. US strikes have targeted Iranian infrastructure, including bridges, while Vice President Vance signaled openness to de-escalation contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, curbing nuclear activities, and halting proxy support for groups like Hezbollah. Diplomatic deadlocks persist despite prior back-channel proposals via Oman and Pakistan, with President Trump issuing a 10-day ultimatum on Hormuz access. These military escalations and hardened stances drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions, though breakthroughs could emerge from renewed multilateral talks or Hormuz concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$89,278,779Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Pakistan-led mediation efforts for a US-Iran ceasefire collapsed within the last 24 hours, as Tehran refused to engage US representatives in Islamabad and rejected a proposed 48-hour truce amid day 36 of escalating airstrikes and retaliatory threats. US strikes have targeted Iranian infrastructure, including bridges, while Vice President Vance signaled openness to de-escalation contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, curbing nuclear activities, and halting proxy support for groups like Hezbollah. Diplomatic deadlocks persist despite prior back-channel proposals via Oman and Pakistan, with President Trump issuing a 10-day ultimatum on Hormuz access. These military escalations and hardened stances drive trader consensus toward prolonged tensions, though breakthroughs could emerge from renewed multilateral talks or Hormuz concessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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