Trader consensus prices a 98.7% implied probability on "No" for President Trump departing office by April 30, driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal: impeachment conviction demands a two-thirds Senate supermajority amid Republican control, while the 25th Amendment requires Vice President Vance and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity—neither showing traction. Over the past week, backlash intensified over the faltering Iran military engagement, with Trump's approval ratings in free fall per recent polling, leaked images of White House West Colonnade damage, and partisan House impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939, yet no procedural votes or endorsements from GOP leadership. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to sudden health events, explosive scandals, or unforeseen cabinet revolt, all deemed improbable in the one-month window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
$44,046 Vol.
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$44,046 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
$44,046 Vol.
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$44,046 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 98.7% implied probability on "No" for President Trump departing office by April 30, driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal: impeachment conviction demands a two-thirds Senate supermajority amid Republican control, while the 25th Amendment requires Vice President Vance and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity—neither showing traction. Over the past week, backlash intensified over the faltering Iran military engagement, with Trump's approval ratings in free fall per recent polling, leaked images of White House West Colonnade damage, and partisan House impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939, yet no procedural votes or endorsements from GOP leadership. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to sudden health events, explosive scandals, or unforeseen cabinet revolt, all deemed improbable in the one-month window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$44,046End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 98.7% implied probability on "No" for President Trump departing office by April 30, driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal: impeachment conviction demands a two-thirds Senate supermajority amid Republican control, while the 25th Amendment requires Vice President Vance and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity—neither showing traction. Over the past week, backlash intensified over the faltering Iran military engagement, with Trump's approval ratings in free fall per recent polling, leaked images of White House West Colonnade damage, and partisan House impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939, yet no procedural votes or endorsements from GOP leadership. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to sudden health events, explosive scandals, or unforeseen cabinet revolt, all deemed improbable in the one-month window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,046End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 98.7% implied probability on "No" for President Trump departing office by April 30, driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal: impeachment conviction demands a two-thirds Senate supermajority amid Republican control, while the 25th Amendment requires Vice President Vance and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity—neither showing traction. Over the past week, backlash intensified over the faltering Iran military engagement, with Trump's approval ratings in free fall per recent polling, leaked images of White House West Colonnade damage, and partisan House impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939, yet no procedural votes or endorsements from GOP leadership. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to sudden health events, explosive scandals, or unforeseen cabinet revolt, all deemed improbable in the one-month window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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