Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 75.5% probability that the CDC will issue a new Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—by December 31, 2026, driven by the recent hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, where the CDC activated a routine Level 3 emergency response as of early May amid dispersed passengers across multiple countries. Official CDC data confirms no current Level 3 notices, but multiple Level 2 alerts persist for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya outbreaks in several nations, circulating poliovirus globally, and clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia, with updates as recent as March 2026. Hantavirus's high case-fatality rate (up to 38%) and limited but monitored person-to-person potential in certain strains heighten escalation risks, though surveillance shows no sustained transmission; next CDC outbreak reports and FluView updates expected soon could refine epidemiological trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
$117,078 Vol.
$117,078 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$117,078 Vol.
$117,078 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 75.5% probability that the CDC will issue a new Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—by December 31, 2026, driven by the recent hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, where the CDC activated a routine Level 3 emergency response as of early May amid dispersed passengers across multiple countries. Official CDC data confirms no current Level 3 notices, but multiple Level 2 alerts persist for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya outbreaks in several nations, circulating poliovirus globally, and clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia, with updates as recent as March 2026. Hantavirus's high case-fatality rate (up to 38%) and limited but monitored person-to-person potential in certain strains heighten escalation risks, though surveillance shows no sustained transmission; next CDC outbreak reports and FluView updates expected soon could refine epidemiological trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$117,078End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 75.5% probability that the CDC will issue a new Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—by December 31, 2026, driven by the recent hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, where the CDC activated a routine Level 3 emergency response as of early May amid dispersed passengers across multiple countries. Official CDC data confirms no current Level 3 notices, but multiple Level 2 alerts persist for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya outbreaks in several nations, circulating poliovirus globally, and clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia, with updates as recent as March 2026. Hantavirus's high case-fatality rate (up to 38%) and limited but monitored person-to-person potential in certain strains heighten escalation risks, though surveillance shows no sustained transmission; next CDC outbreak reports and FluView updates expected soon could refine epidemiological trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$117,078End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 75.5% probability that the CDC will issue a new Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—by December 31, 2026, driven by the recent hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, where the CDC activated a routine Level 3 emergency response as of early May amid dispersed passengers across multiple countries. Official CDC data confirms no current Level 3 notices, but multiple Level 2 alerts persist for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya outbreaks in several nations, circulating poliovirus globally, and clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia, with updates as recent as March 2026. Hantavirus's high case-fatality rate (up to 38%) and limited but monitored person-to-person potential in certain strains heighten escalation risks, though surveillance shows no sustained transmission; next CDC outbreak reports and FluView updates expected soon could refine epidemiological trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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