Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability against another U.S. sovereign credit downgrade before 2027 because the three major agencies completed their rating adjustments in 2025, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and Scope to AA− in October, while Fitch has maintained its AA+ with a stable outlook. Persistent fiscal pressures, including gross federal debt near $39 trillion and projected general government deficits of 7.9% of GDP for 2026, remain key rating challenges, yet recent communications from Fitch and Moody’s highlight the Federal Reserve’s policy independence and the dollar’s reserve status as offsetting strengths. With no new governance shocks or sharply deteriorating debt metrics since the 2025 actions, market-implied odds reflect expectations that agencies will hold current ratings through the November 2026 midterms absent a major fiscal surprise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,086 Vol.
$10,086 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,086 Vol.
$10,086 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability against another U.S. sovereign credit downgrade before 2027 because the three major agencies completed their rating adjustments in 2025, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and Scope to AA− in October, while Fitch has maintained its AA+ with a stable outlook. Persistent fiscal pressures, including gross federal debt near $39 trillion and projected general government deficits of 7.9% of GDP for 2026, remain key rating challenges, yet recent communications from Fitch and Moody’s highlight the Federal Reserve’s policy independence and the dollar’s reserve status as offsetting strengths. With no new governance shocks or sharply deteriorating debt metrics since the 2025 actions, market-implied odds reflect expectations that agencies will hold current ratings through the November 2026 midterms absent a major fiscal surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability against another U.S. sovereign credit downgrade before 2027 because the three major agencies completed their rating adjustments in 2025, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and Scope to AA− in October, while Fitch has maintained its AA+ with a stable outlook. Persistent fiscal pressures, including gross federal debt near $39 trillion and projected general government deficits of 7.9% of GDP for 2026, remain key rating challenges, yet recent communications from Fitch and Moody’s highlight the Federal Reserve’s policy independence and the dollar’s reserve status as offsetting strengths. With no new governance shocks or sharply deteriorating debt metrics since the 2025 actions, market-implied odds reflect expectations that agencies will hold current ratings through the November 2026 midterms absent a major fiscal surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability against another U.S. sovereign credit downgrade before 2027 because the three major agencies completed their rating adjustments in 2025, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and Scope to AA− in October, while Fitch has maintained its AA+ with a stable outlook. Persistent fiscal pressures, including gross federal debt near $39 trillion and projected general government deficits of 7.9% of GDP for 2026, remain key rating challenges, yet recent communications from Fitch and Moody’s highlight the Federal Reserve’s policy independence and the dollar’s reserve status as offsetting strengths. With no new governance shocks or sharply deteriorating debt metrics since the 2025 actions, market-implied odds reflect expectations that agencies will hold current ratings through the November 2026 midterms absent a major fiscal surprise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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