**Trader consensus on limited near-term risk of an EU debt downgrade reflects the bloc’s supranational ratings remaining anchored at Aaa/AAA with stable outlooks from Moody’s and Fitch as of late September and January 2026.** Strong backing from highly rated member states, particularly Germany, underpins the EU’s credit profile despite outstanding debt rising toward €1 trillion by end-2027 from NGEU disbursements and related programs. Fiscal pressures are most acute in France, where debt-to-GDP is projected near 121% in 2027 amid a 5% deficit target and political uncertainty ahead of presidential elections, driving wider OAT-Bund spreads and recent Scope and DBRS actions. However, long average debt maturities, contained interest burdens relative to peers, and absence of acute crisis signals support the view that rating stability will prevail through 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include French budget passage and ECB policy signals.