Traders assign a 97.8% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the established congressional process for adjusting the debt limit and the consistent historical pattern of avoiding actual default. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between early and mid-2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would typically extend operations for several additional months into 2028. Bipartisan incentives to prevent severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and damage to the dollar's reserve status reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act in time. While prolonged standoffs or unanticipated fiscal shocks remain possible disruptors, the timeline and institutional safeguards make default by the market's resolution date highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.8% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the established congressional process for adjusting the debt limit and the consistent historical pattern of avoiding actual default. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between early and mid-2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would typically extend operations for several additional months into 2028. Bipartisan incentives to prevent severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and damage to the dollar's reserve status reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act in time. While prolonged standoffs or unanticipated fiscal shocks remain possible disruptors, the timeline and institutional safeguards make default by the market's resolution date highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,283End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.8% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the established congressional process for adjusting the debt limit and the consistent historical pattern of avoiding actual default. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between early and mid-2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would typically extend operations for several additional months into 2028. Bipartisan incentives to prevent severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and damage to the dollar's reserve status reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act in time. While prolonged standoffs or unanticipated fiscal shocks remain possible disruptors, the timeline and institutional safeguards make default by the market's resolution date highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Traders assign a 97.8% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the established congressional process for adjusting the debt limit and the consistent historical pattern of avoiding actual default. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between early and mid-2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would typically extend operations for several additional months into 2028. Bipartisan incentives to prevent severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and damage to the dollar's reserve status reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act in time. While prolonged standoffs or unanticipated fiscal shocks remain possible disruptors, the timeline and institutional safeguards make default by the market's resolution date highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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