Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, most recently with a $5 trillion increase in 2025 that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Current debt stands near $40 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that typically provide several additional months before any payment shortfall. This timeline, combined with the dollar's reserve status, routine debt management practices, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption, underpins the strong consensus against default. Late-stage negotiations or unforeseen fiscal shocks remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, most recently with a $5 trillion increase in 2025 that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Current debt stands near $40 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that typically provide several additional months before any payment shortfall. This timeline, combined with the dollar's reserve status, routine debt management practices, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption, underpins the strong consensus against default. Late-stage negotiations or unforeseen fiscal shocks remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,283End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, most recently with a $5 trillion increase in 2025 that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Current debt stands near $40 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that typically provide several additional months before any payment shortfall. This timeline, combined with the dollar's reserve status, routine debt management practices, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption, underpins the strong consensus against default. Late-stage negotiations or unforeseen fiscal shocks remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,283End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any breach, most recently with a $5 trillion increase in 2025 that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Current debt stands near $40 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that typically provide several additional months before any payment shortfall. This timeline, combined with the dollar's reserve status, routine debt management practices, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption, underpins the strong consensus against default. Late-stage negotiations or unforeseen fiscal shocks remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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