Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, creating substantial headroom that Treasury projections indicate will last well into 2027. Lawmakers have adjusted or suspended the limit dozens of times since 1960, routinely deploying extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service payments to avert any lapse. This pattern, combined with bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and the availability of procedural tools such as continuing resolutions, underpins the 96 percent trader consensus against default by the end of 2027. A shift would require prolonged gridlock once the limit binds or an acute fiscal shock that overrides standard legislative responses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl default degli Stati Uniti sul debito entro il 2027?
Il default degli Stati Uniti sul debito entro il 2027?
Sì
$15,053 Vol.
$15,053 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$15,053 Vol.
$15,053 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, creating substantial headroom that Treasury projections indicate will last well into 2027. Lawmakers have adjusted or suspended the limit dozens of times since 1960, routinely deploying extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service payments to avert any lapse. This pattern, combined with bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and the availability of procedural tools such as continuing resolutions, underpins the 96 percent trader consensus against default by the end of 2027. A shift would require prolonged gridlock once the limit binds or an acute fiscal shock that overrides standard legislative responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$15,053Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, creating substantial headroom that Treasury projections indicate will last well into 2027. Lawmakers have adjusted or suspended the limit dozens of times since 1960, routinely deploying extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service payments to avert any lapse. This pattern, combined with bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and the availability of procedural tools such as continuing resolutions, underpins the 96 percent trader consensus against default by the end of 2027. A shift would require prolonged gridlock once the limit binds or an acute fiscal shock that overrides standard legislative responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$15,053Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through reconciliation legislation, creating substantial headroom that Treasury projections indicate will last well into 2027. Lawmakers have adjusted or suspended the limit dozens of times since 1960, routinely deploying extraordinary measures and prioritizing debt service payments to avert any lapse. This pattern, combined with bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and the availability of procedural tools such as continuing resolutions, underpins the 96 percent trader consensus against default by the end of 2027. A shift would require prolonged gridlock once the limit binds or an acute fiscal shock that overrides standard legislative responses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti