Traders assign a 98.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently increasing it by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion. Extraordinary measures and Treasury cash reserves provide additional runway, while projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next debt-limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with an X-date several months later. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would accompany any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged post-election gridlock preventing timely action or an unexpected surge in deficits that accelerates the timeline, though historical patterns show repeated last-minute resolutions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently increasing it by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion. Extraordinary measures and Treasury cash reserves provide additional runway, while projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next debt-limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with an X-date several months later. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would accompany any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged post-election gridlock preventing timely action or an unexpected surge in deficits that accelerates the timeline, though historical patterns show repeated last-minute resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,283End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently increasing it by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion. Extraordinary measures and Treasury cash reserves provide additional runway, while projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next debt-limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with an X-date several months later. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would accompany any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged post-election gridlock preventing timely action or an unexpected surge in deficits that accelerates the timeline, though historical patterns show repeated last-minute resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Traders assign a 98.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently increasing it by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion. Extraordinary measures and Treasury cash reserves provide additional runway, while projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place the next debt-limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with an X-date several months later. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would accompany any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged post-election gridlock preventing timely action or an unexpected surge in deficits that accelerates the timeline, though historical patterns show repeated last-minute resolutions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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