Traders assign a 98% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027, reflecting the consistent congressional record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any payment shortfall. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 increase, with projections indicating contact in spring or summer 2027 and extraordinary measures extending several additional months. Bipartisan awareness of the severe disruption to financial markets, Treasury securities, and economic activity has historically produced timely legislation, reinforced by stable credit outlooks that assume continued resolution. Factors that could still shift probabilities include prolonged legislative standoffs, sharper-than-expected deficit growth from spending or revenue shortfalls, or policy changes that alter negotiation dynamics before the end of 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027, reflecting the consistent congressional record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any payment shortfall. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 increase, with projections indicating contact in spring or summer 2027 and extraordinary measures extending several additional months. Bipartisan awareness of the severe disruption to financial markets, Treasury securities, and economic activity has historically produced timely legislation, reinforced by stable credit outlooks that assume continued resolution. Factors that could still shift probabilities include prolonged legislative standoffs, sharper-than-expected deficit growth from spending or revenue shortfalls, or policy changes that alter negotiation dynamics before the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,283End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027, reflecting the consistent congressional record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any payment shortfall. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 increase, with projections indicating contact in spring or summer 2027 and extraordinary measures extending several additional months. Bipartisan awareness of the severe disruption to financial markets, Treasury securities, and economic activity has historically produced timely legislation, reinforced by stable credit outlooks that assume continued resolution. Factors that could still shift probabilities include prolonged legislative standoffs, sharper-than-expected deficit growth from spending or revenue shortfalls, or policy changes that alter negotiation dynamics before the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Traders assign a 98% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027, reflecting the consistent congressional record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any payment shortfall. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 increase, with projections indicating contact in spring or summer 2027 and extraordinary measures extending several additional months. Bipartisan awareness of the severe disruption to financial markets, Treasury securities, and economic activity has historically produced timely legislation, reinforced by stable credit outlooks that assume continued resolution. Factors that could still shift probabilities include prolonged legislative standoffs, sharper-than-expected deficit growth from spending or revenue shortfalls, or policy changes that alter negotiation dynamics before the end of 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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