Congress raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, creating substantial headroom as gross federal debt nears $39 trillion in May 2026 and is projected to require action only in mid-to-late 2027, per Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis. This underpins trader consensus pricing "No" default at 93.8% implied probability, aligned with historical precedent of 79 debt ceiling increases or suspensions since 1960 across administrations to avert crisis. Recent routine fiscal steps, including the April 2026 House passage of a Department of Homeland Security funding bill averting shutdown, signal minimal brinkmanship, despite CBO-projected deficits pushing debt-to-GDP above 100%. Late-breaking gridlock, extraordinary fiscal shocks, or prolonged post-election disputes could still shift odds, though Congress has consistently prioritized financial stability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl default degli Stati Uniti sul debito entro il 2027?
Il default degli Stati Uniti sul debito entro il 2027?
Sì
$14,924 Vol.
$14,924 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$14,924 Vol.
$14,924 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, creating substantial headroom as gross federal debt nears $39 trillion in May 2026 and is projected to require action only in mid-to-late 2027, per Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis. This underpins trader consensus pricing "No" default at 93.8% implied probability, aligned with historical precedent of 79 debt ceiling increases or suspensions since 1960 across administrations to avert crisis. Recent routine fiscal steps, including the April 2026 House passage of a Department of Homeland Security funding bill averting shutdown, signal minimal brinkmanship, despite CBO-projected deficits pushing debt-to-GDP above 100%. Late-breaking gridlock, extraordinary fiscal shocks, or prolonged post-election disputes could still shift odds, though Congress has consistently prioritized financial stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$14,924Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, creating substantial headroom as gross federal debt nears $39 trillion in May 2026 and is projected to require action only in mid-to-late 2027, per Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis. This underpins trader consensus pricing "No" default at 93.8% implied probability, aligned with historical precedent of 79 debt ceiling increases or suspensions since 1960 across administrations to avert crisis. Recent routine fiscal steps, including the April 2026 House passage of a Department of Homeland Security funding bill averting shutdown, signal minimal brinkmanship, despite CBO-projected deficits pushing debt-to-GDP above 100%. Late-breaking gridlock, extraordinary fiscal shocks, or prolonged post-election disputes could still shift odds, though Congress has consistently prioritized financial stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,924Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, creating substantial headroom as gross federal debt nears $39 trillion in May 2026 and is projected to require action only in mid-to-late 2027, per Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis. This underpins trader consensus pricing "No" default at 93.8% implied probability, aligned with historical precedent of 79 debt ceiling increases or suspensions since 1960 across administrations to avert crisis. Recent routine fiscal steps, including the April 2026 House passage of a Department of Homeland Security funding bill averting shutdown, signal minimal brinkmanship, despite CBO-projected deficits pushing debt-to-GDP above 100%. Late-breaking gridlock, extraordinary fiscal shocks, or prolonged post-election disputes could still shift odds, though Congress has consistently prioritized financial stability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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