A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
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"Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Andy Burnham" a 100%, seguito da "Simon Finkelstein" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" ha generato $8.8 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il May 14, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" è "Andy Burnham" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Simon Finkelstein" a 0%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $8.8 million scambiati su "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 100¢ per "Andy Burnham" nel mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 100% che "Andy Burnham" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 100¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 0¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" è stato risolto. Il risultato finale è stato determinato e il mercato non è più aperto al trading. Puoi comunque consultare le quote storiche, le probabilità degli esiti e i commenti su questa pagina per vedere come si sono evolute le previsioni nel tempo.
Il mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield" ha una comunità attiva di 170 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Makerfield". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
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Domande frequenti