Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia launched Operation Yemen Dawn in early October 2026, claiming to have retaken key coastal positions including areas around Dhubab and parts of the Bab el-Mandeb approaches from Houthi control. The Houthis, who seized Mocha, Perim Island, and adjacent territory in September, dispute these advances and maintain a ban on Saudi-linked vessels imposed in July. Satellite tracking shows tanker transits roughly 26% below prior averages, with many operators diverting around the Cape of Good Hope amid ongoing missile and drone risks. No authority has declared the strait formally closed, and limited commercial traffic continues, though independent verification of territorial shifts remains limited. These competing military claims and persistent security threats shape trader assessments of effective closure.