Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 78.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus for a policy pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a solid 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted officials' raised 2026 inflation outlook and openness to hikes if needed, aligning with 10-year Treasury yields around 4.26%. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and intervening FOMC meetings, potentially swaying the 12.5% odds for a 25 basis points cut.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 79%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 13%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.3%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 2.5%
$3,745,827 Vol.
$3,745,827 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
13%
Nessun cambiamento
79%
Aumento di 25 punti base
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 79%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 13%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.3%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 2.5%
$3,745,827 Vol.
$3,745,827 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$181,616 Vol.
3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$123,935 Vol.
13%
Nessun cambiamento
$193,095 Vol.
79%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$3,036,337 Vol.
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$210,843 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 78.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus for a policy pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a solid 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted officials' raised 2026 inflation outlook and openness to hikes if needed, aligning with 10-year Treasury yields around 4.26%. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and intervening FOMC meetings, potentially swaying the 12.5% odds for a 25 basis points cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,745,827Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 78.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus for a policy pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a solid 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted officials' raised 2026 inflation outlook and openness to hikes if needed, aligning with 10-year Treasury yields around 4.26%. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and intervening FOMC meetings, potentially swaying the 12.5% odds for a 25 basis points cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$3,745,827Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price an 78.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus for a policy pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a solid 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted officials' raised 2026 inflation outlook and openness to hikes if needed, aligning with 10-year Treasury yields around 4.26%. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and intervening FOMC meetings, potentially swaying the 12.5% odds for a 25 basis points cut.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti