Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy cost spikes tied to the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a softer-than-average 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range in late April despite dissent against easing bias, signaling policy patience. This positioning could shift if May CPI (due June 10) softens markedly or June jobs data weakens substantially, prompting rate cut repricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 93%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 4.2%
Aumento di 25 punti base 2.9%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.1%
$5,364,998 Vol.
$5,364,998 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
4%
Nessun cambiamento
93%
Aumento di 25 punti base
3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 93%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 4.2%
Aumento di 25 punti base 2.9%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.1%
$5,364,998 Vol.
$5,364,998 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$512,518 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$398,747 Vol.
4%
Nessun cambiamento
$622,855 Vol.
93%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$3,364,112 Vol.
3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$466,766 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy cost spikes tied to the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a softer-than-average 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range in late April despite dissent against easing bias, signaling policy patience. This positioning could shift if May CPI (due June 10) softens markedly or June jobs data weakens substantially, prompting rate cut repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,364,998Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy cost spikes tied to the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a softer-than-average 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range in late April despite dissent against easing bias, signaling policy patience. This positioning could shift if May CPI (due June 10) softens markedly or June jobs data weakens substantially, prompting rate cut repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,364,998Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy cost spikes tied to the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added a softer-than-average 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range in late April despite dissent against easing bias, signaling policy patience. This positioning could shift if May CPI (due June 10) softens markedly or June jobs data weakens substantially, prompting rate cut repricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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