Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range amid April headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient labor-market data showing unemployment near 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing indicate policymakers view current monetary policy as appropriate given upside risks to inflation and solid growth, with futures implying little movement through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent CPI releases will provide key updates, though any shift would require clearer evidence of cooling price pressures or weakening employment to alter the current market-implied path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 94%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 1.6%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$8,244,728 Vol.
$8,244,728 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
2%
Nessun cambiamento
94%
Aumento di 25 punti base
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 94%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 1.6%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$8,244,728 Vol.
$8,244,728 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$1,061,856 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$851,488 Vol.
2%
Nessun cambiamento
$1,096,039 Vol.
94%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$3,872,795 Vol.
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$1,362,582 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range amid April headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient labor-market data showing unemployment near 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing indicate policymakers view current monetary policy as appropriate given upside risks to inflation and solid growth, with futures implying little movement through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent CPI releases will provide key updates, though any shift would require clearer evidence of cooling price pressures or weakening employment to alter the current market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,244,728Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range amid April headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient labor-market data showing unemployment near 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing indicate policymakers view current monetary policy as appropriate given upside risks to inflation and solid growth, with futures implying little movement through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent CPI releases will provide key updates, though any shift would require clearer evidence of cooling price pressures or weakening employment to alter the current market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$8,244,728Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50%-3.75% target range amid April headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year and resilient labor-market data showing unemployment near 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes and market pricing indicate policymakers view current monetary policy as appropriate given upside risks to inflation and solid growth, with futures implying little movement through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent CPI releases will provide key updates, though any shift would require clearer evidence of cooling price pressures or weakening employment to alter the current market-implied path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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