Persistent above-target inflation and a stable labor market have anchored overwhelming trader consensus around no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI registered 3.8% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while May employment data showed 172,000 job gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, leaving the federal funds rate at its 3.50–3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and the potential for policy firming if price pressures persist, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts toward a data-dependent hold. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 meeting outcomes remain the key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility, though a meaningful shift would require a sharp downside surprise in inflation or employment readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 94%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 1.6%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$8,245,873 Vol.
$8,245,873 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
2%
Nessun cambiamento
94%
Aumento di 25 punti base
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 94%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.3%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 1.6%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$8,245,873 Vol.
$8,245,873 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$1,062,199 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$851,757 Vol.
2%
Nessun cambiamento
$1,096,177 Vol.
94%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$3,873,260 Vol.
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$1,362,680 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent above-target inflation and a stable labor market have anchored overwhelming trader consensus around no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI registered 3.8% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while May employment data showed 172,000 job gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, leaving the federal funds rate at its 3.50–3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and the potential for policy firming if price pressures persist, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts toward a data-dependent hold. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 meeting outcomes remain the key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility, though a meaningful shift would require a sharp downside surprise in inflation or employment readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,245,873Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent above-target inflation and a stable labor market have anchored overwhelming trader consensus around no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI registered 3.8% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while May employment data showed 172,000 job gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, leaving the federal funds rate at its 3.50–3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and the potential for policy firming if price pressures persist, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts toward a data-dependent hold. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 meeting outcomes remain the key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility, though a meaningful shift would require a sharp downside surprise in inflation or employment readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$8,245,873Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-target inflation and a stable labor market have anchored overwhelming trader consensus around no change at the July FOMC meeting. April CPI registered 3.8% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while May employment data showed 172,000 job gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, leaving the federal funds rate at its 3.50–3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and the potential for policy firming if price pressures persist, shifting market-implied odds away from cuts toward a data-dependent hold. The June 10 CPI release and June 16–17 meeting outcomes remain the key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility, though a meaningful shift would require a sharp downside surprise in inflation or employment readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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