Traders assign 92% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in April amid elevated inflation readings tied to geopolitical tensions and Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Recent minutes and market pricing show participants expect little change through year-end, with incoming data and the balance of risks supporting a cautious stance over near-term easing. The next June 16–17 meeting, which will include updated projections under potential new leadership, remains a key near-term catalyst. A sharper labor-market softening or sustained decline in energy prices could still reopen the door to cuts, though current conditions favor the prevailing pause consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 92%
Other 3.0%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$52,571 Vol.
$52,571 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
92%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 92%
Other 3.0%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$52,571 Vol.
$52,571 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,509 Vol.
92%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,868 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,558 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,777 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign 92% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in April amid elevated inflation readings tied to geopolitical tensions and Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Recent minutes and market pricing show participants expect little change through year-end, with incoming data and the balance of risks supporting a cautious stance over near-term easing. The next June 16–17 meeting, which will include updated projections under potential new leadership, remains a key near-term catalyst. A sharper labor-market softening or sustained decline in energy prices could still reopen the door to cuts, though current conditions favor the prevailing pause consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$52,571Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign 92% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in April amid elevated inflation readings tied to geopolitical tensions and Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Recent minutes and market pricing show participants expect little change through year-end, with incoming data and the balance of risks supporting a cautious stance over near-term easing. The next June 16–17 meeting, which will include updated projections under potential new leadership, remains a key near-term catalyst. A sharper labor-market softening or sustained decline in energy prices could still reopen the door to cuts, though current conditions favor the prevailing pause consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$52,571Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign 92% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% in April amid elevated inflation readings tied to geopolitical tensions and Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Recent minutes and market pricing show participants expect little change through year-end, with incoming data and the balance of risks supporting a cautious stance over near-term easing. The next June 16–17 meeting, which will include updated projections under potential new leadership, remains a key near-term catalyst. A sharper labor-market softening or sustained decline in energy prices could still reopen the door to cuts, though current conditions favor the prevailing pause consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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