Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April despite one dissenting vote for a cut. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—signaling sticky inflation amid solid economic expansion and stable unemployment, diminishing rate-cut urgency. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they reveal sharp cooling, prompting a policy pivot, though current Treasury yields and CME FedWatch futures reinforce the pause narrative.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPausa–Pausa–Pausa 95%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio 3.7%
Altro 1.4%
$1,037,101 Vol.
$1,037,101 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
95%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
4%
Altro
1%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa 95%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio 3.7%
Altro 1.4%
$1,037,101 Vol.
$1,037,101 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
$46,044 Vol.
95%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
$22,766 Vol.
4%
Altro
$222,949 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April despite one dissenting vote for a cut. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—signaling sticky inflation amid solid economic expansion and stable unemployment, diminishing rate-cut urgency. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they reveal sharp cooling, prompting a policy pivot, though current Treasury yields and CME FedWatch futures reinforce the pause narrative.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,037,101Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April despite one dissenting vote for a cut. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—signaling sticky inflation amid solid economic expansion and stable unemployment, diminishing rate-cut urgency. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they reveal sharp cooling, prompting a policy pivot, though current Treasury yields and CME FedWatch futures reinforce the pause narrative.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,037,101Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions across the March 17–18, April 28–29, and June 16–17 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April despite one dissenting vote for a cut. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—signaling sticky inflation amid solid economic expansion and stable unemployment, diminishing rate-cut urgency. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls could challenge this if they reveal sharp cooling, prompting a policy pivot, though current Treasury yields and CME FedWatch futures reinforce the pause narrative.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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