Recent inflation data through early 2026 and a stable labor market have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged federal funds rates at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, producing a near-100% implied probability for the pause-pause-pause outcome. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with core PCE and employment figures showing insufficient movement to justify shifts, consistent with the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. This consensus draws on historical base rates where steady policy prevails absent clear disinflation or recession signals. The June meeting remains the final near-term catalyst, though an abrupt deterioration in June employment data or a surprise CPI spike could still alter positioning before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPausa–Pausa–Pausa 100.0%
Taglio–Pausa–Pausa <1%
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa <1%
$2,333,980 Vol.
$2,333,980 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Taglio–Pausa–Pausa
No
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa
No
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
Sì
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa
No
Altro
No
Taglia–Pausa–Taglia
No
Taglio–Taglio–Taglio
No
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
No
Pausa–Taglio–Taglio
No
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa 100.0%
Taglio–Pausa–Pausa <1%
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa <1%
$2,333,980 Vol.
$2,333,980 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Taglio–Pausa–Pausa
$0 Vol.
No
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa
$0 Vol.
No
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
$497,869 Vol.
Sì
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa
$206,504 Vol.
No
Altro
$467,987 Vol.
No
Taglia–Pausa–Taglia
$0 Vol.
No
Taglio–Taglio–Taglio
$0 Vol.
No
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
$622,782 Vol.
No
Pausa–Taglio–Taglio
$538,838 Vol.
No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data through early 2026 and a stable labor market have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged federal funds rates at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, producing a near-100% implied probability for the pause-pause-pause outcome. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with core PCE and employment figures showing insufficient movement to justify shifts, consistent with the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. This consensus draws on historical base rates where steady policy prevails absent clear disinflation or recession signals. The June meeting remains the final near-term catalyst, though an abrupt deterioration in June employment data or a surprise CPI spike could still alter positioning before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$2,333,980Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data through early 2026 and a stable labor market have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged federal funds rates at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, producing a near-100% implied probability for the pause-pause-pause outcome. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with core PCE and employment figures showing insufficient movement to justify shifts, consistent with the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. This consensus draws on historical base rates where steady policy prevails absent clear disinflation or recession signals. The June meeting remains the final near-term catalyst, though an abrupt deterioration in June employment data or a surprise CPI spike could still alter positioning before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$2,333,980Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent inflation data through early 2026 and a stable labor market have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged federal funds rates at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, producing a near-100% implied probability for the pause-pause-pause outcome. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with core PCE and employment figures showing insufficient movement to justify shifts, consistent with the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. This consensus draws on historical base rates where steady policy prevails absent clear disinflation or recession signals. The June meeting remains the final near-term catalyst, though an abrupt deterioration in June employment data or a surprise CPI spike could still alter positioning before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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