Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no policy shift at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections show officials prioritizing upside price risks amid a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, reducing the odds of a 25-basis-point cut. Broker forecasts from J.P. Morgan and others now see rates on hold through 2026, with any easing or tightening deferred into 2027, aligning with the 76.5% probability traders assign to no change while assigning modest odds to a hike if inflation data remain elevated ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 77%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$92,088 Vol.
$92,088 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$92,088 Vol.
$92,088 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,219 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$21,121 Vol.
7%
No change
$21,053 Vol.
77%
25 bps increase
$19,008 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$15,687 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no policy shift at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections show officials prioritizing upside price risks amid a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, reducing the odds of a 25-basis-point cut. Broker forecasts from J.P. Morgan and others now see rates on hold through 2026, with any easing or tightening deferred into 2027, aligning with the 76.5% probability traders assign to no change while assigning modest odds to a hike if inflation data remain elevated ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$92,088Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no policy shift at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections show officials prioritizing upside price risks amid a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, reducing the odds of a 25-basis-point cut. Broker forecasts from J.P. Morgan and others now see rates on hold through 2026, with any easing or tightening deferred into 2027, aligning with the 76.5% probability traders assign to no change while assigning modest odds to a hike if inflation data remain elevated ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$92,088Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no policy shift at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections show officials prioritizing upside price risks amid a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll gains, reducing the odds of a 25-basis-point cut. Broker forecasts from J.P. Morgan and others now see rates on hold through 2026, with any easing or tightening deferred into 2027, aligning with the 76.5% probability traders assign to no change while assigning modest odds to a hike if inflation data remain elevated ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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