Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the central bank's March 17-18, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor markets—unemployment dipped to 4.3% in March—and dot plots signaling one 25 basis point cut later this year. However, March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February due to war-related oil shocks, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to reveal some officials' openness to hikes and an upward revision to 2026 inflation forecasts. CME FedWatch tools price over 98% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with key catalysts including April CPI (May release) and PCE data shaping policy expectations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$31,354 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Riunione di aprile
1%
Riunione di giugno
4%
Riunione di luglio
10%
Riunione di settembre
15%
Riunione di ottobre
19%
$31,354 Vol.
Riunione di aprile
$24,301 Vol.
1%
Riunione di giugno
$6,580 Vol.
4%
Riunione di luglio
$414 Vol.
10%
Riunione di settembre
$3 Vol.
15%
Riunione di ottobre
$55 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the central bank's March 17-18, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor markets—unemployment dipped to 4.3% in March—and dot plots signaling one 25 basis point cut later this year. However, March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February due to war-related oil shocks, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to reveal some officials' openness to hikes and an upward revision to 2026 inflation forecasts. CME FedWatch tools price over 98% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with key catalysts including April CPI (May release) and PCE data shaping policy expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$31,354Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the central bank's March 17-18, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor markets—unemployment dipped to 4.3% in March—and dot plots signaling one 25 basis point cut later this year. However, March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February due to war-related oil shocks, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to reveal some officials' openness to hikes and an upward revision to 2026 inflation forecasts. CME FedWatch tools price over 98% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with key catalysts including April CPI (May release) and PCE data shaping policy expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,354Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the central bank's March 17-18, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient labor markets—unemployment dipped to 4.3% in March—and dot plots signaling one 25 basis point cut later this year. However, March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February due to war-related oil shocks, prompting FOMC minutes on April 8 to reveal some officials' openness to hikes and an upward revision to 2026 inflation forecasts. CME FedWatch tools price over 98% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with key catalysts including April CPI (May release) and PCE data shaping policy expectations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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