Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price spikes have lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to near parity, with futures now embedding a modest upward drift to around 3.8 percent by year-end. April FOMC minutes showed a majority of participants flagging the potential need for policy firming if inflation stays persistently above the 2 percent target, while the labor market’s resilience continues to limit downside risks to growth. Traders balance these hawkish signals against the Fed’s March dot plot, which still projected one cut, and await the June 16–17 meeting’s updated Summary of Economic Projections plus fresh CPI and employment data for clearer direction on whether the current 3.50–3.75 percent range holds or tightens.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,486,560 Vol.
$1,486,560 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$1,486,560 Vol.
$1,486,560 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price spikes have lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to near parity, with futures now embedding a modest upward drift to around 3.8 percent by year-end. April FOMC minutes showed a majority of participants flagging the potential need for policy firming if inflation stays persistently above the 2 percent target, while the labor market’s resilience continues to limit downside risks to growth. Traders balance these hawkish signals against the Fed’s March dot plot, which still projected one cut, and await the June 16–17 meeting’s updated Summary of Economic Projections plus fresh CPI and employment data for clearer direction on whether the current 3.50–3.75 percent range holds or tightens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,486,560Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price spikes have lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to near parity, with futures now embedding a modest upward drift to around 3.8 percent by year-end. April FOMC minutes showed a majority of participants flagging the potential need for policy firming if inflation stays persistently above the 2 percent target, while the labor market’s resilience continues to limit downside risks to growth. Traders balance these hawkish signals against the Fed’s March dot plot, which still projected one cut, and await the June 16–17 meeting’s updated Summary of Economic Projections plus fresh CPI and employment data for clearer direction on whether the current 3.50–3.75 percent range holds or tightens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,486,560Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price spikes have lifted market-implied odds of a 2026 federal funds rate hike to near parity, with futures now embedding a modest upward drift to around 3.8 percent by year-end. April FOMC minutes showed a majority of participants flagging the potential need for policy firming if inflation stays persistently above the 2 percent target, while the labor market’s resilience continues to limit downside risks to growth. Traders balance these hawkish signals against the Fed’s March dot plot, which still projected one cut, and await the June 16–17 meeting’s updated Summary of Economic Projections plus fresh CPI and employment data for clearer direction on whether the current 3.50–3.75 percent range holds or tightens.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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