Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut occurring by the December 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting caution after March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—driven by oil price spikes amid Iran tensions, despite March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in March, projecting one 25 basis point cut this year amid elevated inflation risks. CME FedWatch shows near-100% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with April CPI due May 12 as the next key catalyst potentially shifting the policy outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$1,390,946 Vol.
Riunione di aprile
1%
Riunione di giugno
9%
Riunione di luglio
21%
Riunione di settembre
42%
Riunione di ottobre
50%
Riunione di dicembre
61%
$1,390,946 Vol.
Riunione di aprile
1%
Riunione di giugno
9%
Riunione di luglio
21%
Riunione di settembre
42%
Riunione di ottobre
50%
Riunione di dicembre
61%
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut occurring by the December 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting caution after March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—driven by oil price spikes amid Iran tensions, despite March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in March, projecting one 25 basis point cut this year amid elevated inflation risks. CME FedWatch shows near-100% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with April CPI due May 12 as the next key catalyst potentially shifting the policy outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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