Trader consensus prices the probability that Jerome Powell will avoid jail before 2027 at 98.8% for the “No” outcome, driven by the complete absence of any criminal investigations, indictments, or regulatory actions against the Federal Reserve Chair. No recent FOMC communications, SEC filings, or congressional oversight reports have raised misconduct concerns, and central bankers historically face such outcomes only under extraordinary circumstances backed by clear evidence. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that his monetary policy role and institutional protections create high barriers to incarceration in the near term. Realistic tail-risk scenarios remain limited to unforeseen political shifts or major undisclosed scandals, though none have surfaced in current data to challenge the prevailing pricing.