The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate stands at 3.75–4.00% following the September 2026 25-basis-point hike—the first tightening move since 2023—driven by persistently elevated inflation near 3.4–3.8% on core PCE measures and a solid economic expansion. FOMC projections and minutes indicate a median expectation for one additional hike by year-end, lifting the median dot to 4.1%, with most participants viewing further tightening as appropriate amid upside inflation risks from energy prices, AI-driven demand, and potential tariffs. Market-implied odds price a high likelihood of stability at the late-October meeting but elevated odds of another increase by December. Key upcoming data releases, including September CPI and PCE plus the October employment report, will shape the December dot plot and any shift in the policy path through 2027.