Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.2% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027, driven by the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy, including managing the Fed funds rate and implementing quantitative easing amid ongoing inflation targeting at 2%. No legislative bills or formal proposals have advanced in Congress to dismantle the institution, despite rhetorical critiques from President Trump on central bank independence—highlighted by Jerome Powell's chair term expiring in May 2026, prompting speculation on a successor nomination. Structural barriers, such as the need for broad bipartisan support and potential Treasury yield disruptions, reinforce this near-certain positioning. Tail risks include an unforeseen radical reform bill gaining traction in a lame-duck session, though markets price such scenarios as negligible given historical precedents of Fed resilience.