Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers to provincial secession from Canada. A court injunction granted on April 10 by an Edmonton judge has paused signature verification for the Alberta Prosperity Project's "Stay Free" petition—claiming over 177,000 signatures to trigger an independence referendum—pending a First Nations challenge over treaty rights violations by Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation. Recent Leger and Pollara polls show support for separation at just 27%, a five-year high but still a minority, with Premier Danielle Smith firmly rejecting independence or U.S. statehood. Even a successful referendum would require federal negotiations under the Clarity Act following a clear majority on a precise question, per Supreme Court precedent. U.S. accession would further demand Congressional approval amid partisan divides. Late-breaking shifts could arise from injunction reversal, surging polls, or extraordinary federal-provincial breakdowns, though these remain remote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Alberta join the US?
Will Alberta join the US?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers to provincial secession from Canada. A court injunction granted on April 10 by an Edmonton judge has paused signature verification for the Alberta Prosperity Project's "Stay Free" petition—claiming over 177,000 signatures to trigger an independence referendum—pending a First Nations challenge over treaty rights violations by Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation. Recent Leger and Pollara polls show support for separation at just 27%, a five-year high but still a minority, with Premier Danielle Smith firmly rejecting independence or U.S. statehood. Even a successful referendum would require federal negotiations under the Clarity Act following a clear majority on a precise question, per Supreme Court precedent. U.S. accession would further demand Congressional approval amid partisan divides. Late-breaking shifts could arise from injunction reversal, surging polls, or extraordinary federal-provincial breakdowns, though these remain remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,056Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers to provincial secession from Canada. A court injunction granted on April 10 by an Edmonton judge has paused signature verification for the Alberta Prosperity Project's "Stay Free" petition—claiming over 177,000 signatures to trigger an independence referendum—pending a First Nations challenge over treaty rights violations by Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation. Recent Leger and Pollara polls show support for separation at just 27%, a five-year high but still a minority, with Premier Danielle Smith firmly rejecting independence or U.S. statehood. Even a successful referendum would require federal negotiations under the Clarity Act following a clear majority on a precise question, per Supreme Court precedent. U.S. accession would further demand Congressional approval amid partisan divides. Late-breaking shifts could arise from injunction reversal, surging polls, or extraordinary federal-provincial breakdowns, though these remain remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$2,056Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional, legal, and political barriers to provincial secession from Canada. A court injunction granted on April 10 by an Edmonton judge has paused signature verification for the Alberta Prosperity Project's "Stay Free" petition—claiming over 177,000 signatures to trigger an independence referendum—pending a First Nations challenge over treaty rights violations by Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation. Recent Leger and Pollara polls show support for separation at just 27%, a five-year high but still a minority, with Premier Danielle Smith firmly rejecting independence or U.S. statehood. Even a successful referendum would require federal negotiations under the Clarity Act following a clear majority on a precise question, per Supreme Court precedent. U.S. accession would further demand Congressional approval amid partisan divides. Late-breaking shifts could arise from injunction reversal, surging polls, or extraordinary federal-provincial breakdowns, though these remain remote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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