**The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the linkage of the July 2026 Section 123 agreement to Saudi normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords, a condition President Trump publicly imposed shortly after signing.** Saudi officials have long tied such normalization to a credible path toward Palestinian statehood, a threshold that remains unmet amid ongoing regional tensions and the Iran conflict. The agreement, signed July 22 and transmitted to Congress in late August, faces the standard 90-day Atomic Energy Act review period ending around late November. Lawmakers retain the option to pass a joint resolution of disapproval, though a presidential veto would likely sustain it absent broad bipartisan opposition. Separate concerns over uranium enrichment provisions after a planned two-year study, the absence of the IAEA Additional Protocol, and bilateral safeguards have drawn scrutiny from nonproliferation advocates and some members of Congress. No breakthrough on the Israel precondition or congressional clearance has occurred in the weeks since transmission, leaving the timeline for entry into force in 2026 highly uncertain.