Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, including a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension and framework addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside Strait of Hormuz access, represent the main driver behind traders' 83.5% implied probability against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that opened the 2026 conflict, recent talks mediated by regional actors have yielded a memorandum of understanding under review by President Trump, with officials noting progress on de-escalation despite intermittent strikes and mutual mistrust. This trajectory aligns with the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing, where market participants assign low odds to large-scale ground operations and instead anticipate negotiated containment consistent with historical patterns of U.S. engagement in the region.