**Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict centers on air and missile strikes, naval blockade, and sanctions rather than ground invasion.** President Trump has ruled out major U.S. attacks before the November 2026 midterms while directing the Pentagon to prepare limited strike options targeting Iranian missile, drone, and energy sites afterward. Indirect diplomacy continues through Qatari and Pakistani mediators, with recent proposal exchanges on reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief, though core disputes over nuclear enrichment and the blockade persist. U.S. naval reinforcements, including additional carrier groups, signal leverage for pressure or escalation, yet both sides emphasize negotiations alongside posturing. Traders price a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027 as unlikely given the preference for economic and air-based tools, high costs of occupation, and active back-channel talks.