Mid‑term fundraising report shows Shapiro’s campaign raised $30 million, with $10 million coming in Q4 2025, indicating his focus on state races rather than a national campaign

Mid‑term fundraising report shows Shapiro’s campaign raised $30 million, with $10 million coming in Q4 2025, indicating his focus on state races rather than a national campaign

The New Republic highlights AOC’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference again, but frames it as “she attended a policy conference that often draws White House hopefuls,”

The New Republic highlights AOC’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference again, but frames it as “she attended a policy conference that often draws White House hopefuls,” which fails to revive market optimism and the

A Daily Bruin analysis highlighted Newsom’s growing national profile and speculation about his 2028 run, nudging the

Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%

A Daily Bruin analysis highlighted Newsom’s growing national profile and speculation about his 2028 run, nudging the

Axios analysis notes AOC’s “hide‑and‑seek” media strategy—early‑year interviews followed by a silence—keeping her out of the spotlight and reinforcing the market’s low‑confidence

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez drops to 8%5%

Axios analysis notes AOC’s “hide‑and‑seek” media strategy—early‑year interviews followed by a silence—keeping her out of the spotlight and reinforcing the market’s low‑confidence view, holding the

Georgia Democrats discuss the 2028 national convention while Ossoff publicly downplays any presidential ambitions, keeping his market

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%3%

Georgia Democrats discuss the 2028 national convention while Ossoff publicly downplays any presidential ambitions, keeping his market

Nancy Pelosi publicly endorses Newsom’s 2028 presidential run The establishment endorsement added significant backing and helped the

Nancy Pelosi publicly endorses Newsom’s 2028 presidential run The establishment endorsement added significant backing and helped the

Ossoff’s team remained silent on far‑left streamer Hasan Piker’s endorsement of him, while other Democrats publicly distanced themselves from the influencer;

Jon Ossoff jumps to 8%6%

the lack of a clear response added to market uncertainty and nudged his

The Guardian covers Ossoff’s fiery Augusta rally where he mocks presidential‑rumor speculation, reviving market interest and pushing odds up to the highest level of the period

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

The Guardian covers Ossoff’s fiery Augusta rally where he mocks presidential‑rumor speculation, reviving market interest and pushing odds up to the highest level of the period

Guardian reports “fiery speech” and mounting speculation that Ossoff could launch a 2028 bid A high‑profile rally in Augusta and media chatter about a possible presidential run

Guardian reports “fiery speech” and mounting speculation that Ossoff could launch a 2028 bid A high‑profile rally in Augusta and media chatter about a possible presidential run briefly lifted the.

Shapiro tells National Action Network that a 2028 run is “for another day” while urging a “national referendum on Trump” His explicit statement that the presidential question

Shapiro tells National Action Network that a 2028 run is “for another day” while urging a “national referendum on Trump” His explicit statement that the presidential question would be decided later reinforced the market’s view that his candidacy was not imminent, keeping the

At the National Action Network convention, Shapiro tells reporters he will “be a part of the conversation” about 2028 but does not commit, reinforcing market perception that a run

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

At the National Action Network convention, Shapiro tells reporters he will “be a part of the conversation” about 2028 but does not commit, reinforcing market perception that a run is uncertain

CS Monitor notes AOC staying quiet on 2028 plans while defending President Biden The piece highlighted her silence on a presidential bid and focus on party‑wide issues,

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez drops to 8%5%

CS Monitor notes AOC staying quiet on 2028 plans while defending President Biden The piece highlighted her silence on a presidential bid and focus on party‑wide issues, reinforcing market perception that she was unlikely to run and pushing the.

Beshear’s low‑key social‑media tease of an upcoming announcement, later revealed to be the book release rather than a campaign launch The modest announcement confirmed no

Beshear’s low‑key social‑media tease of an upcoming announcement, later revealed to be the book release rather than a campaign launch The modest announcement confirmed no presidential move, leaving the.

Emanuel visits early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina, confirming he is seriously weighing a White House bid, but market impact remains minimal due to ongoing

Rahm Emanuel rises to 3%2%

Emanuel visits early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina, confirming he is seriously weighing a White House bid, but market impact remains minimal due to ongoing uncertainty

POLITICO reports that Emanuel’s campaign poses a challenge to the Democratic Party’s left-leaning orthodoxy, highlighting his centrist stance and pugilistic style, which may

POLITICO reports that Emanuel’s campaign poses a challenge to the Democratic Party’s left-leaning orthodoxy, highlighting his centrist stance and pugilistic style, which may alienate progressive voters

AOC sponsors the “Fair Wages for Home Care Workers Act” (H.R.7917), signaling continued legislative focus rather than a presidential campaign

AOC sponsors the “Fair Wages for Home Care Workers Act” (H.R.7917), signaling continued legislative focus rather than a presidential campaign

Trump declares Newsom “no longer viable” after a self‑deprecating Atlanta interview The negative reaction from the former president and ensuing criticism caused a sharp

Trump declares Newsom “no longer viable” after a self‑deprecating Atlanta interview The negative reaction from the former president and ensuing criticism caused a sharp

President Trump attacks Newsom on Truth Social, calling him “no longer viable” after a controversial Atlanta book‑tour interview – The negative Trump commentary and fallout from

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

President Trump attacks Newsom on Truth Social, calling him “no longer viable” after a controversial Atlanta book‑tour interview – The negative Trump commentary and fallout from the interview caused the market to retreat in early 2026.

Newsom’s book‑tour stop in New Hampshire sparks fresh 2028 speculation A stop in the first‑primary state was interpreted as groundwork for a presidential bid, lifting his odds

Newsom’s book‑tour stop in New Hampshire sparks fresh 2028 speculation A stop in the first‑primary state was interpreted as groundwork for a presidential bid, lifting his odds modestly in early March.

In a pod‑cast interview Harris says she is “considering” a 2028 presidential run, giving the market a small rally from 5% to 8% as the possibility of a campaign re‑emerges

Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%

In a pod‑cast interview Harris says she is “considering” a 2028 presidential run, giving the market a small rally from 5% to 8% as the possibility of a campaign re‑emerges

Beshear announces a new book “Go and Do Likewise” and says he has “not made any decision about 2028,” keeping the speculation alive but non‑committal The book launch reaffirmed

Andy Beshear dips to 3%2%

Beshear announces a new book “Go and Do Likewise” and says he has “not made any decision about 2028,” keeping the speculation alive but non‑committal The book launch reaffirmed his lack of a concrete campaign plan, cementing the low‑probability market level .

Trump’s renewed attacks and a $22 million fundraising boom for Kelly spark a modest rally, but the market remains low‑single‑digit as traders doubt a formal candidacy

Trump’s renewed attacks and a $22 million fundraising boom for Kelly spark a modest rally, but the market remains low‑single‑digit as traders doubt a formal candidacy

Georgia Recorder photographs Ossoff rallying supporters in Atlanta as the state’s Democrats push for a 2028 convention, keeping his name in the presidential conversation

Georgia Recorder photographs Ossoff rallying supporters in Atlanta as the state’s Democrats push for a 2028 convention, keeping his name in the presidential conversation

Ossoff appears at a Georgia rally as the No.

3 favorite on Kalshi’s 2028 Democratic‑nominee list His campaign event in Atlanta and the market’s ranking of him third behind other contenders revived modest interest, nudging the.

At a Georgia rally, Ossoff again repeats he has “zero interest” in running for president in 2028, emphasizing his family and Senate duties, which pushes his odds back down to the

Jon Ossoff dips to 4%2%

At a Georgia rally, Ossoff again repeats he has “zero interest” in running for president in 2028, emphasizing his family and Senate duties, which pushes his odds back down to the low single digits

“Georgia GOP chairman’s op‑ed attacks Ossoff’s record on the Laken Riley Act” – the piece accused Ossoff of flip‑flopping on immigration‑related legislation, intensifying partisan

“Georgia GOP chairman’s op‑ed attacks Ossoff’s record on the Laken Riley Act” – the piece accused Ossoff of flip‑flopping on immigration‑related legislation, intensifying partisan pressure ahead of the 2026 cycle

Newsom appears at the World Economic Forum in Davos, delivering a hard‑line anti‑Trump speech and teasing a future presidential run – The international stage and explicit “serious

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Newsom appears at the World Economic Forum in Davos, delivering a hard‑line anti‑Trump speech and teasing a future presidential run – The international stage and explicit “serious thought” hint boosted the market to its January peak.

Newsom appears at the World Economic Forum in Davos, mocks Trump supporters with “kneepads” and delivers a sharp anti‑Trump speech The high‑profile international stage renewed

Newsom appears at the World Economic Forum in Davos, mocks Trump supporters with “kneepads” and delivers a sharp anti‑Trump speech The high‑profile international stage renewed media attention and nudged his

Emanuel receives a warm reception at a Mississippi town hall while testing the waters for a 2028 campaign, but longtime Democratic operatives express doubts about his eventual run

Rahm Emanuel rises to 2%1%

Emanuel receives a warm reception at a Mississippi town hall while testing the waters for a 2028 campaign, but longtime Democratic operatives express doubts about his eventual run

Shapiro officially launches his Pennsylvania governor re‑election campaign, framing it as a “new chapter” and downplaying any immediate presidential ambitions

Josh Shapiro drops to 6%6%

Shapiro officially launches his Pennsylvania governor re‑election campaign, framing it as a “new chapter” and downplaying any immediate presidential ambitions

Shapiro officially announces his 2026 gubernatorial re‑election bid The filing emphasized his focus on winning Pennsylvania in 2026, signaling that a 2028 run was unlikely in the

Shapiro officially announces his 2026 gubernatorial re‑election bid The filing emphasized his focus on winning Pennsylvania in 2026, signaling that a 2028 run was unlikely in the near term and pushing the

CNN poll shows Newsom leading the Democratic field (6% of respondents) Early polling support gave traders a reason to raise his odds modestly heading into 2026.

CNN poll shows Newsom leading the Democratic field (6% of respondents) Early polling support gave traders a reason to raise his odds modestly heading into 2026.

Ossoff launches a federal inquiry into AI data‑center power‑usage impacts on Georgia electricity bills The investigation highlighted his focus on state‑level issues and further

Ossoff launches a federal inquiry into AI data‑center power‑usage impacts on Georgia electricity bills The investigation highlighted his focus on state‑level issues and further convinced traders that a 2028 presidential bid was off the table, nudging the

Ossoff’s campaign gains momentum as he “finds firmer footing” in the 2026 race, with Democratic allies touting his growing advantage, further dampening speculation about a

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Ossoff’s campaign gains momentum as he “finds firmer footing” in the 2026 race, with Democratic allies touting his growing advantage, further dampening speculation about a presidential bid

Atlanta Journal‑Constitution reports that Georgia Democrats, citing Ossoff’s fundraising and campaign events, are “confident” about his 2026 Senate race, but the story emphasizes

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Atlanta Journal‑Constitution reports that Georgia Democrats, citing Ossoff’s fundraising and campaign events, are “confident” about his 2026 Senate race, but the story emphasizes his focus on a Senate re‑election rather than a presidential bid, reinforcing low expectations for a 2028 nomination

UNICEF USA honors Ossoff as a 2025 “Champion for Children,” highlighting his bipartisan child‑protection legislation and boosting his national reputation

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

UNICEF USA honors Ossoff as a 2025 “Champion for Children,” highlighting his bipartisan child‑protection legislation and boosting his national reputation

In a podcast interview Harris sidesteps a 2028 run but signals continued political activity, leading the market to edge up modestly from 4% to 5% as analysts note she is “keeping

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

In a podcast interview Harris sidesteps a 2028 run but signals continued political activity, leading the market to edge up modestly from 4% to 5% as analysts note she is “keeping options open”

Ossoff files a new annual financial disclosure showing $3.2 M net worth and $9.1 M raised in Q2 The filing confirmed his continued fundraising strength for the Senate race and

Ossoff files a new annual financial disclosure showing $3.2 M net worth and $9.1 M raised in Q2 The filing confirmed his continued fundraising strength for the Senate race and offered no indication of a presidential ambition, sustaining the market’s low odds.

A federal judge blocks the Pentagon’s attempt to demote Kelly over the “illegal‑orders” video, removing a major legal risk and stabilising the

Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%

A federal judge blocks the Pentagon’s attempt to demote Kelly over the “illegal‑orders” video, removing a major legal risk and stabilising the

CBS News reports Beshear’s new role as chair of the Democratic Governors Association, raising his national profile but emphasizing his focus on governors’ work The appointment

Andy Beshear drops to 5%7%

CBS News reports Beshear’s new role as chair of the Democratic Governors Association, raising his national profile but emphasizing his focus on governors’ work The appointment shifted attention from a presidential bid to party‑building duties, further pulling the.

Ossoff delivers a fiery anti‑Trump speech at a “Social Justice Sunday” service;

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%3%

the clip goes viral and prediction markets briefly lift his 2028 odds to around 8 percent

The Hill poll shows AOC leading among young voters for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reviving talk of a possible run

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez rises to 13%2%

The Hill poll shows AOC leading among young voters for the 2028 Democratic nomination, reviving talk of a possible run

Axios reports Shapiro’s “midterm‑win” strategy aimed at boosting his 2028 presidential prospects, but notes his poll numbers remain at only 4 % in early 2028 primary polls

Josh Shapiro plunges to 12%18%

Axios reports Shapiro’s “midterm‑win” strategy aimed at boosting his 2028 presidential prospects, but notes his poll numbers remain at only 4 % in early 2028 primary polls

Axios reports Shapiro’s “midterm‑boost” strategy for a 2028 run The article outlined his plan to engineer a Democratic blowout in the 2026 midterms to prove electability,

Axios reports Shapiro’s “midterm‑boost” strategy for a 2028 run The article outlined his plan to engineer a Democratic blowout in the 2026 midterms to prove electability, reinforcing the view that he was positioning himself for a future presidential bid and keeping the

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticises Newsom for vetoing a menopause bill, questioning his presidential suitability – The high‑profile cultural backlash softened enthusiasm,

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticises Newsom for vetoing a menopause bill, questioning his presidential suitability – The high‑profile cultural backlash softened enthusiasm, pulling the

Hollywood actress Halle Berry publicly criticises Newsom’s veto of a menopause bill The high‑visibility backlash generated negative press and coincided with a modest

Hollywood actress Halle Berry publicly criticises Newsom’s veto of a menopause bill The high‑visibility backlash generated negative press and coincided with a modest

The Boston Globe noted Newsom’s confident stance during a South Carolina press conference, sustaining market confidence despite a slight dip

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%

The Boston Globe noted Newsom’s confident stance during a South Carolina press conference, sustaining market confidence despite a slight dip

Third‑quarter fundraising report shows $12 million raised, stabilizing his campaign finances but not altering the market’s low confidence in his national viability

Third‑quarter fundraising report shows $12 million raised, stabilizing his campaign finances but not altering the market’s low confidence in his national viability

The Guardian lists AOC among “Potential Democratic contenders for 2028” In a roundup of possible candidates, AOC’s inclusion kept modest interest alive but did not revive odds,

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 13%3%

The Guardian lists AOC among “Potential Democratic contenders for 2028” In a roundup of possible candidates, AOC’s inclusion kept modest interest alive but did not revive odds, reflecting a modest.

Kelly appears on Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Mark Kelly rises to 2%1%

and says he is “seriously considering” a 2028 run, giving the market a brief lift back to 1‑2 %

Washington Post profile notes AOC is now weighing a Senate run instead of a presidential bid, signaling a shift away from the White House and reinforcing market pessimism

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 8%3%

Washington Post profile notes AOC is now weighing a Senate run instead of a presidential bid, signaling a shift away from the White House and reinforcing market pessimism

AP notes Ossoff joins 19 senators to block U.S.

aid to Israel, drawing national attention and a modest uptick in speculation about his national ambitions

Politico labeled Newsom the “2028 front‑runner” after his strong two‑year performance, reinforcing his frontrunner status and keeping the

Gavin Newsom dips to 37%1%

Politico labeled Newsom the “2028 front‑runner” after his strong two‑year performance, reinforcing his frontrunner status and keeping the

California voters approve Proposition 50, giving the Democratic‑controlled legislature power over congressional maps – The win was billed by Newsom as a “big win for Democrats”

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%

California voters approve Proposition 50, giving the Democratic‑controlled legislature power over congressional maps – The win was billed by Newsom as a “big win for Democrats” and a showcase of his ability to reshape national politics, prompting a sharp

California voters approve Proposition 50, giving Democrats control of congressional redistricting The ballot win was billed as a “Election‑Rigging Response Act” that could add up

California voters approve Proposition 50, giving Democrats control of congressional redistricting The ballot win was billed as a “Election‑Rigging Response Act” that could add up to five Democratic House seats, boosting Newsom’s profile as a national strategist and lifting his market

Ossoff voted to block a $20,000 rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from Georgia’s Jewish community and right‑wing media, which further eroded his national appeal

Jon Ossoff dips to 2%1%

Ossoff voted to block a $20,000 rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from Georgia’s Jewish community and right‑wing media, which further eroded his national appeal

Newsom publicly confirmed he was “seriously considering” a 2028 presidential bid in a CBS interview, coinciding with a market peak of 38% as voters saw him as the front‑runner

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%

Newsom publicly confirmed he was “seriously considering” a 2028 presidential bid in a CBS interview, coinciding with a market peak of 38% as voters saw him as the front‑runner

Ossoff announces a law lowering

Ossoff announces a law lowering

NPR interview in New Hampshire where Beshear says he will “consider” a 2028 run The October 2025 NPR segment tempered earlier enthusiasm by framing his interest as tentative,

Andy Beshear plunges to 12%18%

NPR interview in New Hampshire where Beshear says he will “consider” a 2028 run The October 2025 NPR segment tempered earlier enthusiasm by framing his interest as tentative, prompting a sizable.

Ossoff raises $12 million for his 2026 reelection, bringing his cash on hand to $21 million and reinforcing the view that his ambitions are centered on the Senate, not a 2028

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%2%

Ossoff raises $12 million for his 2026 reelection, bringing his cash on hand to $21 million and reinforcing the view that his ambitions are centered on the Senate, not a 2028 presidential run

Ossoff announces a $12 million fundraising total for the July‑September quarter, bringing his campaign cash on hand to $21 million and positioning him as a top fundraiser for 2026

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Ossoff announces a $12 million fundraising total for the July‑September quarter, bringing his campaign cash on hand to $21 million and positioning him as a top fundraiser for 2026

Ossoff publicly condemns Republican blockage of a Democratic funding proposal aimed at preventing health‑insurance premium hikes, highlighting partisan gridlock and underscoring

Jon Ossoff dips to 6%2%

Ossoff publicly condemns Republican blockage of a Democratic funding proposal aimed at preventing health‑insurance premium hikes, highlighting partisan gridlock and underscoring doubts about his ability to win a presidential nomination

Axios reports AOC weighing 2028 presidential or Senate run The article detailed her massive digital‑ad spend and fundraising, signaling a serious exploratory phase and causing the

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez drops to 16%14%

Axios reports AOC weighing 2028 presidential or Senate run The article detailed her massive digital‑ad spend and fundraising, signaling a serious exploratory phase and causing the market to pull back as traders.

Axios reports that AOC’s team is “positioning her to run for president or the Senate in 2028,” reigniting speculation and nudging the

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez drops to 13%9%

Axios reports that AOC’s team is “positioning her to run for president or the Senate in 2028,” reigniting speculation and nudging the

Bernie Sanders publicly endorses AOC for a 2028 presidential run, briefly lifting her odds to 9.9 % but not enough to reverse the downward trend

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 11%2%

Bernie Sanders publicly endorses AOC for a 2028 presidential run, briefly lifting her odds to 9.9 % but not enough to reverse the downward trend

Emanuel headlines a Democratic fish fry in Iowa, emphasizing economic fairness and kitchen-table issues, marking his first major public step toward testing a 2028 message

Rahm Emanuel dips to 1%2%

Emanuel headlines a Democratic fish fry in Iowa, emphasizing economic fairness and kitchen-table issues, marking his first major public step toward testing a 2028 message

Polymarket data noted that FEC filings showed Ossoff raised $10 million in Q2 2025 for his 2026 Senate re‑election, not a presidential campaign, reinforcing doubts and pulling his

Polymarket data noted that FEC filings showed Ossoff raised $10 million in Q2 2025 for his 2026 Senate re‑election, not a presidential campaign, reinforcing doubts and pulling his odds lower

He adopted Trump‑style all‑caps social‑media messaging in a press conference, drawing national attention and further boosting his profile

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%

He adopted Trump‑style all‑caps social‑media messaging in a press conference, drawing national attention and further boosting his profile

Newsom held a press conference in Sacramento and explicitly said he would decide on a 2028 run after the 2026 midterms, giving the market a clear timeline and lifting odds

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%13%

Newsom held a press conference in Sacramento and explicitly said he would decide on a 2028 run after the 2026 midterms, giving the market a clear timeline and lifting odds

In a televised Georgia interview, Ossoff told MS NOW he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid, warning against “fantasy football” about the nomination;

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

the blunt dismissal drove the market down further

Newsom warns of a “Trump 2028” third‑term and calls for a special California election on redistricting The governor’s viral accusation that Donald Trump was plotting a third term

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%13%

Newsom warns of a “Trump 2028” third‑term and calls for a special California election on redistricting The governor’s viral accusation that Donald Trump was plotting a third term and his proposal for a November 4 statewide ballot thrust him into the national spotlight, prompting traders to push his odds sharply upward.

Newsom warns of a “Trump 2028” third‑term plot and proposes a special California redistricting election – The dramatic warning and the proposal of a Nov.

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

4 statewide vote thrust Newsom into the national spotlight as a vocal anti‑Trump figure, nudging the market upward.

Ossoff releases a report documenting abuse of children and pregnant women in U.S.

Jon Ossoff dips to 4%1%

immigration detention facilities, raising his profile on human‑rights issues but also sparking partisan backlash

Ossoff releases a report documenting widespread abuse of children and pregnant women in migrant detention centers, sparking a partisan fight that further hurt his standing among

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

Ossoff releases a report documenting widespread abuse of children and pregnant women in migrant detention centers, sparking a partisan fight that further hurt his standing among moderate voters

Republican challenger Stacy Garrity releases attack ad accusing Shapiro of “career‑politician” ambitions The ad framed Shapiro’s presidential speculation as a distraction from

Republican challenger Stacy Garrity releases attack ad accusing Shapiro of “career‑politician” ambitions The ad framed Shapiro’s presidential speculation as a distraction from state issues, prompting a sharp sell‑off that dropped the market to the low‑single‑digits

President Donald Trump publicly calls for Kelly’s execution, triggering a backlash and a sharp sell‑off that drops his market

Mark Kelly plunges to 1%44%

President Donald Trump publicly calls for Kelly’s execution, triggering a backlash and a sharp sell‑off that drops his market

Ossoff releases a report on abuse of children and pregnant women in migrant detention facilities, shifting media focus to immigration‑policy controversies and further eroding his

Jon Ossoff dips to 8%4%

Ossoff releases a report on abuse of children and pregnant women in migrant detention facilities, shifting media focus to immigration‑policy controversies and further eroding his national‑candidate appeal

Yale Youth Poll released showing AOC in fourth place with only 13 % support among hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary voters, behind Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 13%3%

Yale Youth Poll released showing AOC in fourth place with only 13 % support among hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary voters, behind Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg

Ossoff announces a Senate victory preserving CDC funding, providing a brief positive bump in his perceived competence but insufficient to revive nomination odds

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Ossoff announces a Senate victory preserving CDC funding, providing a brief positive bump in his perceived competence but insufficient to revive nomination odds

Harris posts a cringe TikTok “margaritas on the beach” video that is widely trolled, further damaging her public image and pushing the market down to the low‑single‑digit range

Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%

Harris posts a cringe TikTok “margaritas on the beach” video that is widely trolled, further damaging her public image and pushing the market down to the low‑single‑digit range

Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor, ending speculation about a statewide office and prompting a steep drop from ~39% to single‑digit odds

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor, ending speculation about a statewide office and prompting a steep drop from ~39% to single‑digit odds

Senator Ossoff votes to block a $20,000 rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from Georgia’s Jewish community and right‑wing media labeling him a “radical leftist”

Jon Ossoff plunges to 12%33%

Senator Ossoff votes to block a $20,000 rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from Georgia’s Jewish community and right‑wing media labeling him a “radical leftist”

Senator Ossoff votes to block a $675.7 million weapons sale to Israel, drawing sharp backlash from Georgia’s Jewish community and national media

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%42%

Senator Ossoff votes to block a $675.7 million weapons sale to Israel, drawing sharp backlash from Georgia’s Jewish community and national media

Sen. Jon Ossoff votes to block a $675 million rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from pro‑Israel groups and Georgia’s Jewish community

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Sen. Jon Ossoff votes to block a $675 million rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from pro‑Israel groups and Georgia’s Jewish community

Ossoff votes to block a $20,000‑rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from Georgia’s Jewish community and prompting speculation he would stay focused on Senate work

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Ossoff votes to block a $20,000‑rifle sale to Israel, drawing sharp criticism from Georgia’s Jewish community and prompting speculation he would stay focused on Senate work

Two Georgia Republicans, Rep. Mike Collins and Rep.

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Buddy Carter, announced they will run to defeat Sen. Jon Ossoff in the 2026 Senate race, prompting a rapid loss of confidence in his presidential prospects

“Another Republican joins race to unseat Ossoff” – Rep.

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Mike Collins announced his Senate bid, adding to Rep. Buddy Carter’s campaign and signaling a crowded, well‑funded GOP primary challenge

House Ethics Committee orders AOC to pay a $3,000 settlement for improperly accepting free admission to the Met Gala, drawing negative press and pushing the

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez drops to 22%11%

House Ethics Committee orders AOC to pay a $3,000 settlement for improperly accepting free admission to the Met Gala, drawing negative press and pushing the

Georgia Republican Rep. Mike Collins officially enters the race to challenge Ossoff in the 2026 Senate election, highlighting Ossoff’s vulnerability and reducing his presidential

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

Georgia Republican Rep. Mike Collins officially enters the race to challenge Ossoff in the 2026 Senate election, highlighting Ossoff’s vulnerability and reducing his presidential prospects

Ossoff publicly says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid During a Georgia interview he warned against “fantasy football” about the nomination, reinforcing traders’

Ossoff publicly says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid During a Georgia interview he warned against “fantasy football” about the nomination, reinforcing traders’ belief that he would not run and pushing the

House Ethics Committee finds AOC violated rules over Met Gala attendance and orders a $3,000 payment, drawing negative press

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 13%3%

House Ethics Committee finds AOC violated rules over Met Gala attendance and orders a $3,000 payment, drawing negative press

Rahm Emanuel publicly confirms he is weighing a 2028 presidential run, signaling serious consideration and sparking initial market optimism

Rahm Emanuel publicly confirms he is weighing a 2028 presidential run, signaling serious consideration and sparking initial market optimism

Beshear tests 2028 message on the ground in South Carolina, hinting he’ll “take a look” at a presidential run The governor’s early‑July trip to the early‑primary state and NBC

Andy Beshear plunges to 30%20%

Beshear tests 2028 message on the ground in South Carolina, hinting he’ll “take a look” at a presidential run The governor’s early‑July trip to the early‑primary state and NBC “Meet the Press” interview sparked strong speculation and lifted his market.

FEC data shows Ossoff raised $10 million in Q2 2025, but analysts note his fundraising surge is for his 2026 Senate re‑election, not a presidential run, reinforcing market doubts

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

FEC data shows Ossoff raised $10 million in Q2 2025, but analysts note his fundraising surge is for his 2026 Senate re‑election, not a presidential run, reinforcing market doubts

CNN reports Ossoff raises $10 million in a quarter, leaving more than $15 million in the campaign coffers, bolstering his profile ahead of a 2026 Senate race

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

CNN reports Ossoff raises $10 million in a quarter, leaving more than $15 million in the campaign coffers, bolstering his profile ahead of a 2026 Senate race

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president” and “not making any decision about a horse race,” quashing early speculation and sending

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez plunges to 33%17%

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president” and “not making any decision about a horse race,” quashing early speculation and sending the market down from ~50% to the low‑30s

Ossoff’s Q2 fundraising disclosure shows $9.1 million raised, the largest Q2 haul for any politician that year, but the surge failed to offset growing criticism over his

Jon Ossoff dips to 46%4%

Ossoff’s Q2 fundraising disclosure shows $9.1 million raised, the largest Q2 haul for any politician that year, but the surge failed to offset growing criticism over his Israel‑arms‑sale stance

Speculation spikes after Kelly is named on former Vice‑President Kamala Harris’s short‑list for a 2024 vice‑presidential pick, prompting traders to bid up his 2028 nomination odds

Mark Kelly drops to 45%5%

Speculation spikes after Kelly is named on former Vice‑President Kamala Harris’s short‑list for a 2024 vice‑presidential pick, prompting traders to bid up his 2028 nomination odds

Ossoff files a Q2 FEC report showing a record‑breaking $9.1 million raise, the largest quarterly haul by any politician that year

Jon Ossoff drops to 45%5%

Ossoff files a Q2 FEC report showing a record‑breaking $9.1 million raise, the largest quarterly haul by any politician that year

Ossoff files a Q2 FEC report showing a $9.1 million fundraising haul – the largest Q2 haul by any politician that cycle, signaling strong national donor support

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Ossoff files a Q2 FEC report showing a $9.1 million fundraising haul – the largest Q2 haul by any politician that cycle, signaling strong national donor support

Ossoff files a $9.1 M Q2 fundraising report, the largest Q2 filing to date The sudden surge in disclosed cash (and $15.5 M cash on hand) signaled that Ossoff was gearing up for a

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Ossoff files a $9.1 M Q2 fundraising report, the largest Q2 filing to date The sudden surge in disclosed cash (and $15.5 M cash on hand) signaled that Ossoff was gearing up for a costly 2026 Senate re‑election, leading the market to view a 2028 presidential run as unlikely.

Ossoff tells MS NOW he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid, warning that “fantasy football” would distract from his Senate work

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Ossoff tells MS NOW he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid, warning that “fantasy football” would distract from his Senate work

Ossoff files a Q2 FEC report showing a $9.1 million fundraising haul, the largest of any politician that quarter, signaling a heavy focus on his 2026 Senate campaign

Ossoff files a Q2 FEC report showing a $9.1 million fundraising haul, the largest of any politician that quarter, signaling a heavy focus on his 2026 Senate campaign

Sen. Jon Ossoff tells MS NOW he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid, warning against “fantasy football” with the nomination

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Sen. Jon Ossoff tells MS NOW he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential bid, warning against “fantasy football” with the nomination

Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential run, urging Democrats to focus on midterms The senator’s blunt dismissal of any 2028 ambitions on MS NOW sparked a sharp

Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential run, urging Democrats to focus on midterms The senator’s blunt dismissal of any 2028 ambitions on MS NOW sparked a sharp drop in his nomination odds, driving the market down from its July 11 peak .

Shapiro hints at a 2028 White House bid, sparking speculation that he could become the Democratic nominee

Josh Shapiro plunges to 30%20%

Shapiro hints at a 2028 White House bid, sparking speculation that he could become the Democratic nominee

Shapiro hints at a 2028 presidential bid while stressing focus on Pennsylvania He told reporters he wanted “to be a part of that conversation” about the 2028 nomination but said

Shapiro hints at a 2028 presidential bid while stressing focus on Pennsylvania He told reporters he wanted “to be a part of that conversation” about the 2028 nomination but said his immediate priority was his own re‑election, sparking early optimism and a jump to ~50 %

Newsom’s South Carolina tour, where supporters shouted “2028!” and he was referred to as a presidential candidate, raised his perceived viability and pushed the market up

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Newsom’s South Carolina tour, where supporters shouted “2028!” and he was referred to as a presidential candidate, raised his perceived viability and pushed the market up

“End Citizens United endorses Senator Jon Ossoff for reelection” – the anti‑corruption group publicly backed Ossoff, highlighting his refusal of corporate PAC money and boosting

“End Citizens United endorses Senator Jon Ossoff for reelection” – the anti‑corruption group publicly backed Ossoff, highlighting his refusal of corporate PAC money and boosting his reformist image

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president,” quashing early speculation about a 2028 bid

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez plunges to 16%22%

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president,” quashing early speculation about a 2028 bid

Harris delivers a high‑profile gala speech criticizing the Trump administration and makes a surprise Met Gala appearance, generating a brief optimism bump that lifts the

Kamala Harris rises to 4%2%

Harris delivers a high‑profile gala speech criticizing the Trump administration and makes a surprise Met Gala appearance, generating a brief optimism bump that lifts the

Report that AOC is under investigation for allegedly employing an illegal immigrant, lowering her nomination odds to 10.4 % in market odds tables

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 16%2%

Report that AOC is under investigation for allegedly employing an illegal immigrant, lowering her nomination odds to 10.4 % in market odds tables

AOC’s media team releases a campaign‑style video that fuels speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, prompting a short‑term

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez plunges to 35%15%

AOC’s media team releases a campaign‑style video that fuels speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, prompting a short‑term

Fox News analyst says AOC could win 2028 presidency after poll shows her ahead of Vice President Vance The Independent reported that a poll by The Argument and Verasight placed

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez plunges to 30%20%

Fox News analyst says AOC could win 2028 presidency after poll shows her ahead of Vice President Vance The Independent reported that a poll by The Argument and Verasight placed AOC at 51 % against Vance, prompting a Fox commentator to acknowledge her viability and briefly boosting market confidence .

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president” and has “made no decision about a horse race,” deflecting early‑2025 speculation about a

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez plunges to 18%33%

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president” and has “made no decision about a horse race,” deflecting early‑2025 speculation about a 2028 bid

“‘Border czar’ Tom Homan calls AOC the ‘dumbest congresswoman ever’ and accuses her of illegal immigrant‑education activities”

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez drops to 38%12%

“‘Border czar’ Tom Homan calls AOC the ‘dumbest congresswoman ever’ and accuses her of illegal immigrant‑education activities”