US-Iran diplomacy centers on Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of up to 60% enriched uranium that survived or remains unaccounted for after 2025 strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Recent Qatari-mediated proposals emphasize IAEA-supervised down-blending on Iranian soil or transfer to a third country as trust-building steps tied to sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, rather than physical removal to US control. Iran has repeatedly rejected exporting the material, while US officials including Vice President JD Vance have called for verifiable capacity reductions and inspector access. Negotiations continue following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, with no confirmed transfer mechanism or timeline that would result in US possession by year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the preference for phased diplomatic concessions over direct acquisition.