US-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding continue amid a seven-month conflict, with core disputes centering on Iran's roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% and the status of its damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. US Vice President JD Vance stated on October 7 that Tehran must deliver a "meaningful" reduction in enrichment capacity to satisfy demands and end hostilities, while earlier US positions emphasized destruction or removal of existing stocks and a full halt to enrichment. Iran has withheld IAEA access to bombed sites since the 2025-2026 strikes, leaving the exact location and condition of surviving material uncertain, primarily in underground tunnels. Trader consensus on near-term US acquisition of the stockpile remains low, reflecting stalled verification, Iranian leverage on sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz, and the absence of finalized deal terms on nuclear material disposition.
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