The absence of any successful congressional removal proceedings, resignation, or constitutional invocation of the 25th Amendment through July 2026 underpins the 100% trader consensus on "No." Donald Trump's second term has featured routine executive actions on policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and civil service reforms, with scattered House impeachment resolutions failing to advance amid Republican majorities. Prediction markets reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing low base rates for early exits absent extraordinary triggers. Late-breaking developments including Senate conviction after impeachment, medical incapacity, or voluntary departure remain the primary theoretical paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
<1% probabilità
$2,750,666 Vol.
$2,750,666 Vol.
31 lug 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$2,750,666 Vol.
$2,750,666 Vol.
31 lug 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any successful congressional removal proceedings, resignation, or constitutional invocation of the 25th Amendment through July 2026 underpins the 100% trader consensus on "No." Donald Trump's second term has featured routine executive actions on policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and civil service reforms, with scattered House impeachment resolutions failing to advance amid Republican majorities. Prediction markets reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing low base rates for early exits absent extraordinary triggers. Late-breaking developments including Senate conviction after impeachment, medical incapacity, or voluntary departure remain the primary theoretical paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 26, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,750,666Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any successful congressional removal proceedings, resignation, or constitutional invocation of the 25th Amendment through July 2026 underpins the 100% trader consensus on "No." Donald Trump's second term has featured routine executive actions on policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and civil service reforms, with scattered House impeachment resolutions failing to advance amid Republican majorities. Prediction markets reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing low base rates for early exits absent extraordinary triggers. Late-breaking developments including Senate conviction after impeachment, medical incapacity, or voluntary departure remain the primary theoretical paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,750,666Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The absence of any successful congressional removal proceedings, resignation, or constitutional invocation of the 25th Amendment through July 2026 underpins the 100% trader consensus on "No." Donald Trump's second term has featured routine executive actions on policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and civil service reforms, with scattered House impeachment resolutions failing to advance amid Republican majorities. Prediction markets reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing low base rates for early exits absent extraordinary triggers. Late-breaking developments including Senate conviction after impeachment, medical incapacity, or voluntary departure remain the primary theoretical paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti