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icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

8% chance
Polymarket

$13,651 Vol.

8% chance
Polymarket

$13,651 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with stable outlooks by S&P in June 2026 and Fitch in August 2026 reflect expectations of resilient economic growth, steady tariff-supported revenues, and credible monetary policy that should keep deficits elevated but not sharply worsening through 2027. All three major agencies have already applied one-notch downgrades, and their current assessments point to timely congressional action on the debt ceiling, which is projected to bind only in mid-2027. While rising debt-to-GDP ratios above 120 percent and persistent fiscal pressures remain constraints, the stable outlooks signal limited near-term risk of further cuts absent major shocks. This backdrop underpins trader consensus that another downgrade before the end of 2026 is unlikely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,651
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with stable outlooks by S&P in June 2026 and Fitch in August 2026 reflect expectations of resilient economic growth, steady tariff-supported revenues, and credible monetary policy that should keep deficits elevated but not sharply worsening through 2027. All three major agencies have already applied one-notch downgrades, and their current assessments point to timely congressional action on the debt ceiling, which is projected to bind only in mid-2027. While rising debt-to-GDP ratios above 120 percent and persistent fiscal pressures remain constraints, the stable outlooks signal limited near-term risk of further cuts absent major shocks. This backdrop underpins trader consensus that another downgrade before the end of 2026 is unlikely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,651
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" has generated $13.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.