Skip to main content
icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

24% chance
Polymarket
NEW
24% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, reflecting rating agencies' stable outlooks amid fiscal headroom. Fitch affirmed its AA+ rating with a stable outlook as recently as January 2026, signaling no near-term action despite public debt surpassing 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II at the end of Q1 2026. The July 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion leaves ~$2 trillion in borrowing capacity with debt at $39 trillion, per Treasury data, cushioning immediate risks even as CBO projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit. Key catalysts include persistent 7.9% of GDP deficits through 2027 per Fitch projections and potential debt limit brinkmanship, though historical precedents favor last-minute resolutions without default.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,732
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, reflecting rating agencies' stable outlooks amid fiscal headroom. Fitch affirmed its AA+ rating with a stable outlook as recently as January 2026, signaling no near-term action despite public debt surpassing 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II at the end of Q1 2026. The July 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion leaves ~$2 trillion in borrowing capacity with debt at $39 trillion, per Treasury data, cushioning immediate risks even as CBO projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit. Key catalysts include persistent 7.9% of GDP deficits through 2027 per Fitch projections and potential debt limit brinkmanship, though historical precedents favor last-minute resolutions without default.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,732
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Related

icon for Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

55%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

32%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

34%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 24% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 24¢, the market collectively assigns a 24% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is 24% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 24% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.