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icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
Politics·Recurring

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
Politics·Recurring

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

9% chance
Polymarket

$13,651 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$13,651 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations by S&P in June 2026 and Fitch in August 2026, both holding the U.S. at AA+ with stable outlooks, alongside Moody’s Aa1 rating set in May 2025, underpin trader expectations that no further downgrade will occur before year-end 2026. Agencies cite U.S. economic resilience, dollar reserve status, and tariff-supported revenues as offsetting elevated deficits and debt exceeding $40 trillion. The prior debt-ceiling increase in July 2025 pushed the next potential deadline into mid-2027, reducing near-term fiscal brinkmanship risks. With all three major agencies maintaining stable outlooks and no acute political or economic shocks materializing in recent months, the consensus reflects low probability of rapid successive rating actions within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,651
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations by S&P in June 2026 and Fitch in August 2026, both holding the U.S. at AA+ with stable outlooks, alongside Moody’s Aa1 rating set in May 2025, underpin trader expectations that no further downgrade will occur before year-end 2026. Agencies cite U.S. economic resilience, dollar reserve status, and tariff-supported revenues as offsetting elevated deficits and debt exceeding $40 trillion. The prior debt-ceiling increase in July 2025 pushed the next potential deadline into mid-2027, reducing near-term fiscal brinkmanship risks. With all three major agencies maintaining stable outlooks and no acute political or economic shocks materializing in recent months, the consensus reflects low probability of rapid successive rating actions within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,651
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" has generated $13.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.