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icon for 2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

icon for 2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

12月 31

12月 31

はい

20% 確率
Polymarket

$10,420 Vol.

はい

20% 確率
Polymarket

$10,420 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The May 2025 Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign ratings to Aa1 from Aaa, paired with a shift to stable outlook, aligned all three major agencies at the AA+/Aa1 level with stable assessments, embedding prevailing fiscal trends and underpinning the 82.5% market-implied probability of no further downgrade before 2027. Persistent deficits and debt above $39 trillion continue to pressure the outlook, yet the stable ratings reflect the dollar’s reserve-currency status and the economy’s scale as offsets that would require materially worse fiscal slippage to prompt another cut. The 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion further reduces near-term governance risks through at least 2026. Key catalysts ahead include the next debt-limit deadline and any major shifts in deficit projections or growth data that could alter agency views.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$10,420
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The May 2025 Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign ratings to Aa1 from Aaa, paired with a shift to stable outlook, aligned all three major agencies at the AA+/Aa1 level with stable assessments, embedding prevailing fiscal trends and underpinning the 82.5% market-implied probability of no further downgrade before 2027. Persistent deficits and debt above $39 trillion continue to pressure the outlook, yet the stable ratings reflect the dollar’s reserve-currency status and the economy’s scale as offsets that would require materially worse fiscal slippage to prompt another cut. The 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion further reduces near-term governance risks through at least 2026. Key catalysts ahead include the next debt-limit deadline and any major shifts in deficit projections or growth data that could alter agency views.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$10,420
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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よくある質問

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年までに米国の債務格下げが再びあるか？」で18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、18¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に18%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」は$10.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年までに米国の債務格下げが再びあるか？」で18%であり、市場がこの結果に18%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。