**Recent affirmations by S&P Global Ratings in June 2026 and Fitch Ratings in mid-August 2026, both maintaining AA+ ratings with stable outlooks, form the primary driver of the 91.5% trader consensus against another downgrade before 2027.** These actions reflect assessments of U.S. economic resilience, dollar reserve-currency status, and tariff-supported revenues that offset high but stable deficits. Moody’s Aa1 rating, established after its May 2025 downgrade, carries a comparable stable outlook. Agencies have cited expectations of continued solid growth around 2% and timely congressional action on the debt ceiling, which is projected to become binding in 2027—after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date. While CBO projections show rising debt-to-GDP ratios and recent reports highlight growing interest costs, the absence of negative outlooks or immediate fiscal shocks supports the current pricing. A sharp deterioration in deficits or prolonged debt-ceiling brinkmanship before year-end could still prompt reconsideration, though recent agency commentary indicates limited near-term risk.