Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, reflecting robust economic fundamentals that offset escalating fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 120%. Recent Treasury auctions have shown strong demand with yields remaining subdued near 4.2% on the 10-year note, underscoring the dollar's reserve currency status and investor confidence despite Moody's negative outlook since November 2023. No ratings actions have occurred post-Fitch's 2023 AA+ cut, bolstered by 2.8% GDP growth and sub-4% unemployment. Key catalysts include the January 2025 debt ceiling reinstatement, potential fiscal policy shifts under the incoming administration, and mid-term elections, any of which could elevate brinkmanship risks and shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, reflecting robust economic fundamentals that offset escalating fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 120%. Recent Treasury auctions have shown strong demand with yields remaining subdued near 4.2% on the 10-year note, underscoring the dollar's reserve currency status and investor confidence despite Moody's negative outlook since November 2023. No ratings actions have occurred post-Fitch's 2023 AA+ cut, bolstered by 2.8% GDP growth and sub-4% unemployment. Key catalysts include the January 2025 debt ceiling reinstatement, potential fiscal policy shifts under the incoming administration, and mid-term elections, any of which could elevate brinkmanship risks and shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, reflecting robust economic fundamentals that offset escalating fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 120%. Recent Treasury auctions have shown strong demand with yields remaining subdued near 4.2% on the 10-year note, underscoring the dollar's reserve currency status and investor confidence despite Moody's negative outlook since November 2023. No ratings actions have occurred post-Fitch's 2023 AA+ cut, bolstered by 2.8% GDP growth and sub-4% unemployment. Key catalysts include the January 2025 debt ceiling reinstatement, potential fiscal policy shifts under the incoming administration, and mid-term elections, any of which could elevate brinkmanship risks and shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, reflecting robust economic fundamentals that offset escalating fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 120%. Recent Treasury auctions have shown strong demand with yields remaining subdued near 4.2% on the 10-year note, underscoring the dollar's reserve currency status and investor confidence despite Moody's negative outlook since November 2023. No ratings actions have occurred post-Fitch's 2023 AA+ cut, bolstered by 2.8% GDP growth and sub-4% unemployment. Key catalysts include the January 2025 debt ceiling reinstatement, potential fiscal policy shifts under the incoming administration, and mid-term elections, any of which could elevate brinkmanship risks and shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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