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icon for 2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

icon for 2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？

12月 31

12月 31

はい

22% 確率
Polymarket

$10,028 Vol.

はい

22% 確率
Polymarket

$10,028 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Polymarket traders price a 77% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies—S&P Global at AA+ stable, Moody's at Aa1, and Fitch at AA+—despite persistent fiscal pressures. Fitch's April 30 report highlighted widening general government deficits at 7.9% of GDP through 2026-27 and debt surpassing 120% of GDP by 2027 as key rating challenges, yet stopped short of action amid resilient economic growth and robust Treasury demand as the global reserve asset. Recent debt ceiling resolutions, including April's House funding bill averting shutdowns, have eased near-term brinkmanship risks. Upcoming catalysts include mid-2026 fiscal updates from the CBO and potential debt limit negotiations, which could test trader consensus if deficits accelerate.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$10,028
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Polymarket traders price a 77% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies—S&P Global at AA+ stable, Moody's at Aa1, and Fitch at AA+—despite persistent fiscal pressures. Fitch's April 30 report highlighted widening general government deficits at 7.9% of GDP through 2026-27 and debt surpassing 120% of GDP by 2027 as key rating challenges, yet stopped short of action amid resilient economic growth and robust Treasury demand as the global reserve asset. Recent debt ceiling resolutions, including April's House funding bill averting shutdowns, have eased near-term brinkmanship risks. Upcoming catalysts include mid-2026 fiscal updates from the CBO and potential debt limit negotiations, which could test trader consensus if deficits accelerate.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$10,028
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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よくある質問

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年までに米国の債務格下げが再びあるか？」で22%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、22¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に22%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」は$10Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年までに米国の債務格下げが再びあるか？」で22%であり、市場がこの結果に22%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。