Traders assign a 78% implied probability that no major agency will downgrade U.S. sovereign credit before 2027 because Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch all shifted to stable outlooks after the 2025 downgrades, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and the others already at AA+. The July 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act removed near-term political risk and pushed the next potential limit confrontation into 2027. While CBO projections show persistent deficits and debt-to-GDP rising toward 120% by the mid-2030s, agencies have cited the dollar’s reserve status and deep capital markets as buffers. Absent an abrupt fiscal shock or governance crisis, rating committees are expected to maintain current levels through scheduled reviews.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？
2027年までに別の米国債格下げ？
はい
$10,721 Vol.
$10,721 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$10,721 Vol.
$10,721 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 78% implied probability that no major agency will downgrade U.S. sovereign credit before 2027 because Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch all shifted to stable outlooks after the 2025 downgrades, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and the others already at AA+. The July 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act removed near-term political risk and pushed the next potential limit confrontation into 2027. While CBO projections show persistent deficits and debt-to-GDP rising toward 120% by the mid-2030s, agencies have cited the dollar’s reserve status and deep capital markets as buffers. Absent an abrupt fiscal shock or governance crisis, rating committees are expected to maintain current levels through scheduled reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
音量
$10,721終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 78% implied probability that no major agency will downgrade U.S. sovereign credit before 2027 because Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch all shifted to stable outlooks after the 2025 downgrades, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and the others already at AA+. The July 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act removed near-term political risk and pushed the next potential limit confrontation into 2027. While CBO projections show persistent deficits and debt-to-GDP rising toward 120% by the mid-2030s, agencies have cited the dollar’s reserve status and deep capital markets as buffers. Absent an abrupt fiscal shock or governance crisis, rating committees are expected to maintain current levels through scheduled reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$10,721終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 78% implied probability that no major agency will downgrade U.S. sovereign credit before 2027 because Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch all shifted to stable outlooks after the 2025 downgrades, with Moody’s moving to Aa1 in May and the others already at AA+. The July 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act removed near-term political risk and pushed the next potential limit confrontation into 2027. While CBO projections show persistent deficits and debt-to-GDP rising toward 120% by the mid-2030s, agencies have cited the dollar’s reserve status and deep capital markets as buffers. Absent an abrupt fiscal shock or governance crisis, rating committees are expected to maintain current levels through scheduled reviews.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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